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The military mission of the US-led coalition in Iraq is set to conclude by September 2025, transitioning to a bilateral security arrangement between the United States and Iraq.

This was announced in a joint statement from both nations on Friday and marks a significant change in the region’s security dynamic after more than a decade of US military involvement.

Currently, the United States maintains around 2,500 troops in Iraq, alongside approximately 900 in Syria. These forces are part of coalition formed in 2014 to combat the Islamic State (IS) extremist group

Despite this major change, the joint statement offered limited specifics regarding the exact number of troops that would leave Iraq, or from which bases.

In a on Friday, a senior US official emphasised that the move is not a withdrawal. "This is not a withdrawal. This is a transition to an expanded U.S.-Iraqi bilateral security relationship," the official said, while declining to specify whether any US troops would leave Iraq during this transition period.

Discussions on the Transition and Potential Troop Movements

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani initiated discussions on the transition earlier this year. While al-Sudani has expressed gratitude for US support, he has also pointed out that the U.S. military presence has become a source of instability.

US forces in Iraq have frequently come under attack, with retaliatory strikes on militias not always coordinated with the Iraqi government.

It is expected that several hundred US troops may leave Iraq by September 2025, with the remaining forces departing by the end of 2026.

Coalition forces are scheduled to vacate the Ain al-Asad airbase in Anbar province and reduce their presence in Baghdad.

However, troops are likely to remain stationed in Erbil, where the US maintains strong ties with the Kurdish Regional Government.

Other nations contributing troops to the coalition, including Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, will also adjust their military presence as the mission winds down. During the briefing, US officials refrained from discussing exact deployment details, saying, “There will be changes to our footprint, but decisions have not been finalised.�

Strategic Role and Continued Presence in Syria

While the US military mission in Iraq may be drawing to a close, the US presence in neighbouring Syria is set to continue. The mission in Iraq, initially focused on countering ISIS, also plays a strategic role in countering Iranian influence in the region. This strategic importance has grown as tensions between Israel and Iran escalate.

U.S. forces in Iraq have intercepted rockets and drones targeting Israel in recent months, further highlighting the geopolitical significance of their presence. According to officials, this regional security dynamic will continue to shape US military policy, even after the coalition’s formal mission in Iraq concludes.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has made clear that Iraq no longer requires coalition support, following the defeat of ISIS. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, he stated "The justification for the coalition's presence no longer exists," al-Sudani said, adding that Iraq appreciates the support of its international allies, but the threat from ISIS has diminished significantly.

He also signified the country’s shift towards self-reliance and stability after years of conflict.

Al-Sudani also underscored the importance of Iraq’s bilateral relationship with the US, highlighting the need to implement strategic agreements between the two countries moving forward.

The prime minister revealed that discussions with U.S. President Joe Biden had led to the formation of a joint military committee, tasked with developing a withdrawal plan.

Regional Tensions

Despite Iraq’s efforts to establish stability, regional tensions continue to pose challenges. Iran-backed militias, particularly the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), remain a powerful influence in Iraq.

Although integrated into the country’s security forces, these militias operate with considerable autonomy, occasionally targeting US coalition bases and aligning with Iranian interests.

Recently, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which is made up of several pro-Iran factions, claimed responsibility for an attack on the Jordan Valley in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. As Israel engages in a war against Lebanon, Iraqi militias have pledged their support for Hezbollah should the conflict escalate.