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On 16 February, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev with his Israeli counterpart, Isaac Herzog, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.

Instead of challenging Israelā€™s actions and calling for a ceasefire, his silence on the ongoing genocide in Gaza served Israel in showcasing that it has not been isolated in the Muslim world.

Ilham Aliyev signalled that he was willing to engage with Israel despite the potential backlash from Muslim nations.

Azerbaijan, a relatively small, oil-rich ex-Soviet republic of the South Caucasus, might be geographically distant from the Middle East, but it is certainly not indifferent to developments in Palestine.

Its three major neighbours, Russia, Iran, and its key ally Turkey, are known for their vocal support of the Palestinian cause.

"Together with Kazakhstan, Baku meets over 60% of Israel's crude oil demand. In return, Israel supplies Azerbaijan with a massive amount of weaponry"

While Bakuā€™s foreign policy could be perceived as more supportive of Palestine compared to its smaller neighbours, Armenia and Georgia - given its hosting of a Palestinian embassy, the operation of its own representative office in Ramallah, and consistent support for Palestine in the UN - it has concurrently pursued a discreet but active partnership with Tel Aviv.

Together with Kazakhstan, Baku meets over 60% of Israelā€™s crude oil demand. In return, Israel supplies Azerbaijan with a massive amount of weaponry, which played a crucial role in defeating Armenia in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war.

Moreover, deepening cooperation based on shared distrust of Iran has become a vital nexus between the two countries over the past three decades.

Limited solidarity: Silence on Gaza

In a country where around 90% of the population identifies as Muslim, current expressions of solidarity with Palestine are remarkably limited.

Unlike many other Muslim-majority nations, Azerbaijan has not witnessed massive protests or boycott campaigns against Israel since the outset of the Gaza war. While public opinion data is hard to come by on such sensitive issues, online polls that nearly two-thirds of Azerbaijanis voiced support for Israel during the surprise Hamas attack on 7 October.

On social media, Palestinian diplomacy is frequently accused of being pro-Armenian and anti-Turkish, which has been debunked by . Many Azerbaijanis view Israel as a valuable ally vis-Ć -vis Armenia and Iran, as evidenced by the display of during the mass celebrations in Baku following Azerbaijanā€™s victory over Armenia in 2020.

Authorities in Azerbaijan, on the other hand, have abstained from addressing the issue publicly since 7 October, maintaining a deliberate silence that mirrors the official policy of downplaying the importance of Palestine in domestic politics.

Despite the absence of an overtly pro-Israel stance in the mainstream media, the scant and unempathetic coverage of Gaza-related events reflects the lesser significance attached to the issue within the country.

Nevertheless, there are also reports that Israel has invested heavily in Azerbaijani media to foster a favourable image.

"Unlike many other Muslim-majority nations, Azerbaijan has not witnessed massive protests or boycott campaigns against Israel since the outset of the Gaza war"

The suppression of pro-Palestinian sentiments

On 31 October, , a former representative of the Caucasus Muslim Board, a state-established religious authority, delivered a fiery speech lambasting the Azerbaijani government for its dealings with Israel. In a pro-Palestinian protest in Georgia, he denounced Israel as a ā€˜terrorist stateā€™ and condemned turning a blind eye to Israeli atrocities.

His remarks were particularly cutting given how Azerbaijani authorities imposed a de facto ban on protests against Israel, a restriction that has grown more stringent alongside the gradual erosion of civil liberties over time.

Particularly after the 2020 war, the government has launched a massive crackdown on the , the main segment of society aligned with pro-Palestinian sentiments.

Historically, the religious community has been the most fervent supporter of the Palestinian cause in Azerbaijan. Spanning from the Israel-Lebanon war in 2006 to subsequent Israeli assaults on Gaza in 2008 and 2011 and the Israeli attack on the Turkish Mavi Marmara flotilla in 2010, activists have often faced the heavy hand of authority in protests.

The annual Quds Day, a commemoration observed on the last Friday of Ramadan, has been a particularly important event in drafting pro-Palestinian solidarity among the Azerbaijani public, often marked by rallies against Israel.

In oppositional Islamic discourse, backing the Palestinian cause also plays a re-mobilising role, intertwining concerns over foreign policy decisions with the underlying issue of authoritarian governance.

Leaders within the Shia community have long accused Israel of directly playing a role in encouraging the Azerbaijani government to adopt authoritarian practices, including the suppression of religious freedoms.

This sentiment extends beyond Islamist circles, as human rights advocates have raised alarms about Israelā€™s cyber warfare industry, notably Pegasus spyware that enabled the Azerbaijani government to surveil local activists and journalists, disregarding democratic norms and human rights.

Amid prevailing apprehension within the country and deepening ties with Israel, expressions of solidarity with Gaza have become a subversive act. Some exile groups call for inscribing anti-Israeli slogans on walls and releasing balloons featuring the Palestinian flag, aimed at raising awareness among Azerbaijanis.

Despite not receiving widespread media coverage or public attention, these actions nonetheless unsettle authorities, leading to pressure by the police and, in some cases, administrative detentions.

Azerbaijan's balancing act

On 7 October, Azerbaijan officially a balanced stance, condemning the violence inflicted on civilians by both parties and extending condolences for Israeli and Palestinian losses. This approach persisted during the UN General Assembly meetings, where Baku supported resolutions advocating for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

Yet, even in the subsequent months when Israelā€™s actions began to be recognised as posing a plausible risk of genocide by the ICJ, Azerbaijan continued to abstain from offering even token criticism of Israel, let alone taking any meaningful political action.

Among Azerbaijani officials, only Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, during his speeches at the extraordinary meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) on and at the Joint Arab-Islamic Extraordinary Summit on , expressed Bakuā€™s support for the Palestinian peopleā€™s pursuit of statehood and emphasised a two-state resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, he refrained from directly condemning Israeli aggression.

"Despite the absence of an overtly pro-Israel stance in the mainstream media, the scant and unempathetic coverage of Gaza-related events reflects the lesser significance attached to the issue within the country"

Instead, Baku continues to quietly strengthen its ties with Israel. In November, the Azerbaijani state oil company, SOCAR, a gas exploration licence for offshore blocks in the East Mediterranean. Furthermore, in January, Azerbaijan its oil supply to meet Israel's energy needs, as Tel Aviv emerged as its primary oil customer.

Amid rising tensions with Armenia, Baku a new shopping list of military equipment to Tel Aviv, which includes spy satellites and loitering weapon systems. Two Israeli defence technology firms, Meteor Aerospace and SpearUAV, are also expected to sign deals with Azerbaijan on in the coming months.

While deepening ties with Israel largely fail to provoke reactions in Azerbaijani society, it does not go unnoticed in Turkey. Turkish activists have in front of SOCAR to demand that Azerbaijan stop the provision of oil for the Israeli war machine.

Perhaps the January 2009 released by WikiLeaks paints the best picture of Bakuā€™s crude pragmatism in this context. According to the cable, when US embassy officials communicated with their Azerbaijani counterparts to oppose a UN resolution condemning Israelā€™s 2008/09 invasion of Gaza, dubbed ā€˜Operation Cast Lead,ā€™ an Azerbaijani MFA contact ā€œexplained that Azerbaijan would follow the OIC line and that there was ā€˜an understandingā€™ with Israel about Azerbaijanā€™s voting behaviourā€.

As the cable illustrates, the Aliyev government cannot completely disregard developments in the Palestinian arena or adopt a unilateral pro-Israel stance, given Palestineā€™s significance within the Muslim world.

However, it is unlikely that Baku will move beyond cursory statements and votes in international organisations at the expense of lucrative trade with Tel Aviv.

Rovshan Mammadli is a Baku-based journalist and independent analyst. Holding a BA in Israel and Middle East Studies and an MA in International Policy Studies, he focuses on Azerbaijanā€™s foreign policy, Middle East politics, and peace and security in the South Caucasus.Ģż

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