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The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is entering 2025 under the weight of an array of seismic events that could reshape the geopolitical landscape for years to come. From Syria’s shifting power dynamics to the war in Gaza, the outcome of these pivotal moments will echo far beyond the region. With multiple layers of conflict and diplomacy, 2025 is poised to be a year of transformation. Here are five key events to watch closely:

1.    The Trump inauguration and shifting US-MENA relations

With Donald Trump set to assume the White House presidency in January 2025, the implications for the Middle East will be profound. Trump’s ‘America First’ policies, combined with his often-transactional approach to diplomacy, could fuel regional instability as alliances are recalibrated. Trump’s unwavering support for Israel, particularly in its war in Gaza, is expected to deepen.

While Trump has generally endorsed Israel’s actions, his administration’s stance on Palestine might be shaped by the isolationist inclinations of key figures like Vice President-elect James David Vance. Trump's contradictory approach adds further complexity to the region. He called for an end to the war in Gaza while telling Benjamin Netanyahu, who is facing accusations of war crimes and crimes against humanity, to ‘do what you have to do’.

For Arab countries, particularly those in close proximity to Iran, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Trump’s re-election could signal a tough stance against Tehran. His administration will likely escalate pressure on Iran, potentially reigniting tensions over nuclear development and missile testing. This pressure could fuel greater instability in the Gulf and other parts of the region, as Iran will not hesitate to retaliate.

2.    Syria’s transitional government and the end of the Assad regime

Syria’s ongoing transition, which will see the end of the transitional government's term in March 2025, will be a critical turning point for the country. External actors, particularly Turkey and Israel, are set to play a decisive role in this transition, given their competing interests in the country’s future. 

Turkey, after supporting opposition groups, has expanded its influence in northern Syria, and with Bashar al-Assad’s exit, Ankara aims to cement its influence while countering Iran’s grip on the region.

Israel, however, has other designs. While it welcomes the weakening of Iran’s influence, Israel remains wary of Turkey’s growing role and its potential to shape the post-Assad Syrian order. It has also launched massive airstrikes in Syria and occupied land, in a bid to ensure that Syria remains weak and unable to challenge it. 

The geopolitical jockeying between these powers will likely intensify in 2025, as each vies for control over Syria’s fractured state. Expect Syria to remain a flashpoint for Turkish-Israeli tensions, with both sides manoeuvring to secure their strategic interests.

3.    Lebanon’s government formation and economic crisis 

Lebanon’s persistent political crisis has left the country adrift, unable to form a fully functioning government since the 2019 protests. In 2024, Lebanon faced mounting pressure to form a new administration as it deals with economic collapse, inflation, and a devaluation of the Lebanese pound. The vacuum of leadership and institutional paralysis exacerbates an already dire situation.

International calls for a more inclusive government are growing, especially from the US and Europe, which demand a functioning administration to address Lebanon’s economic collapse and growing security threats. However, Hezbollah’s continuing influence in Lebanon's political structure, despite the group being greatly weakened by Israel's recent war, complicates any prospects for meaningful reform.

By 2025, Lebanon may find itself caught between the need for international assistance and internal demands for sovereignty. The resilience of its political system and the ability to form a government will likely determine whether Lebanon emerges from its crisis or continues its downward spiral into further disintegration.

4.    Gaza's escalating violence and uncertain road ahead 

Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza, which despite ceasefire talks shows no signs of letting up, has already claimed the lives of more than 45,000 Palestinians, and wounded over 100,000 since October 7, 2023.

Israel's military operations are continuing to kill dozens of Palestinians every day.

The international community’s efforts to mediate a ceasefire will be severely tested in 2025, particularly under the looming shadow of Trump’s re-election. His unwavering support for Israel, including recognising Jerusalem as its capital and endorsing settlement expansion, suggests his second term could further empower the settler movement.

While a full annexation might clash with his ambitions for a broader deal under the Abraham Accords—aimed at normalising Israel’s ties with Saudi Arabia—a more permissive US approach could fuel the entrenchment of Israeli settlements in the West Bank. This will likely fuel greater resistance not only in Palestine but across the Arab world, potentially igniting wider unrest.

5.    Yemen's war: A key battleground 

Yemen’s war is now in its ninth year. Despite a long-running truce, there are no signs yet of a political solution. The frozen conflict between the Saudi-backed government and Houthi rebels, aligned with Iran, continues to fuel regional rivalries. The Houthis’ increasing prominence within the ‘Axis of Resistance’ may lead to greater Iranian influence, which Israel and its allies are keen to prevent.

Israel is expected to intensify military operations against Houthi targets, while the Houthis themselves will likely expand their reach, particularly in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa, in a bid to disrupt shipping lanes vital to global commerce. Yemen could become an even more critical focal point in the larger struggle between Iran and its regional opponents.