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Last week, European leaders����for the first time to call for a ceasefire in Gaza. By then, more than 34,000 Palestinians - two-thirds of them women and children – had been killed in Israel’s war, launched after Hamas’ deadly 7 October attack.

Spain, Ireland, Belgium, and France constitute the��main bloc��of countries that started calling for a ceasefire at the beginning of November 2023, accompanied by��Malta��and��Slovenia. At the other extreme, Austria and the Czech Republic were reportedly the��last countries��blocking a unanimous EU call for a truce. Germany, Italy, and Hungary were also among the member states most reluctant to demand a ceasefire.��

European countries have aligned themselves in similar constellations regarding other major debates in EU-Israel relations during the last six months. One of the most important disagreements followed Israel’s��accusations��that staff from UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, had participated in the Hamas attack against Israel.

While countries such as France and Spain have continued funding the agency, Germany and Italy are no longer contributing��to UNRWA.��

"The institutional setting of the EU, with its principle of unanimity for major foreign policy decisions, has traditionally increased the leverage of countries that are closer to Israel"

Another source of internal tensions was the joint proposal presented by Spain and Ireland in February 2024 the EU to review its Association Agreement with Israel, which facilitates bilateral relations in areas such as trade or scientific exchanges.

From Madrid and Dublin’s standpoint, the tens of thousands of civilian deaths in Gaza and the severe restriction of humanitarian aid into the enclave made it necessary to study whether the human rights clause in the EU-Israel Association Agreement had been violated.

The suspension of the agreement could have imposed economic costs on Israel, which around 30% of its goods to the EU in 2022. A possible review of the bilateral framework was����by at least six member countries, among them Germany, Italy, and Austria.��

In light of this recent background, it should come as no surprise that Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez recently��launched��a campaign to promote the recognition of Palestine as a state. The countries that have joined the initiative are Ireland, Malta, and Slovenia, which is also consistent with their previous behaviour.

They have all announced they will recognise Palestine at the same time. Although there is no clear date yet, it appears this will happen sooner rather than later.

The case of Belgium, which has also been among the EU countries more critical of Israel, is somewhat more complicated. The country holds the rotating presidency of the EU this semester, which demands a certain neutrality on topics that generate internal European division. This is probably the reason why the Belgian government has not joined the like-minded group of countries pushing for Palestine’s recognition.

At the same time, Belgium will hold national elections in June, which adds further uncertainty about its future course on the recognition of Palestine.��

Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez has embarked on a diplomatic tour to consolidate and expand the group of European countries willing to recognise Palestine. To coordinate the coalition around Palestine’s recognition, Sánchez recently��visited��Ireland and Slovenia. And in the search for new allies, Sánchez��met��Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store on 12 April.

The Norwegian leader did not clarify whether his country would recognise Palestine alongside other European countries, but Oslo is apparently willing to take this step in the coming months. Of note, Norway is a member of NATO but not of the EU. Its eastern neighbour, Sweden, was the last EU country to��recognise��Palestine in 2014.��

Sánchez was����in convincing his new Portuguese counterpart, Luis Montenegro, of the need to accelerate the recognition of Palestine. Montenegro stated that Portugal would wait for a united EU position on the topic before moving forward with recognition. France, and its president Emmanuel Macron, pose the big question mark in terms of the critical mass Spain and other like-minded countries seek to gather in their recognition of Palestine.

After Germany, France has the second largest population and economy in the EU. Macron����two months ago that recognising Palestine is no longer a taboo for France, but the French leader has not taken any specific steps to this effect.��

"The current push for Palestine's recognition promoted by Spain, Ireland, Malta, and Slovenia stems from a critical position regarding Israel's occupation and the ongoing war in Gaza"

On 18 April, Algeria��presented��a proposal to the United Nations Security Council to incorporate Palestine as a full member of the United Nations. Spain, which does not have a seat in the Security Council, was invited to present its position.

The Spanish Foreign Minister, José Manuel Albares,����that “the Palestinian people must have their place in the United Nations and their own state”. He also added that “the place and existence of Israel must be recognised by those who have not yet done so. It is justice for Palestine, it is the best guarantee of security for Israel, and the way to peace in the region”.

The proposal was vetoed by the United States with abstentions from the United Kingdom and Switzerland. France voted in favour, in what could be an indicator of its future course on the topic.��

If the proposal had been approved, a two-thirds majority at the UN General Assembly would have been sufficient to confirm Palestine’s full membership. Although the result will be non-binding, the General Assembly is����to vote on Palestine’s recognition by the end of April. Currently, 139 out of 193 UN member states recognise Palestine. The vote will provide a measure of Washington’s isolation in insisting that the path to Palestinian statehood requires Israel’s acquiescence.����

The current push for Palestine’s recognition promoted by Spain, Ireland, Malta, and Slovenia stems from a critical position regarding Israel’s occupation of Palestine and the ongoing war in Gaza. This is somewhat of a new development, as the map of EU countries����Palestine has not until now necessarily reflected their stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The bulk of EU members recognising Palestine are Eastern European countries that took the step in 1988 when these countries still belonged to the Soviet bloc. The group known as the Visegrád Four (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) all recognise Palestine but are among��the staunchest supporters��of Israel within the EU. The��ties��between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán are particularly close and long-standing.��

There are different reasons for Sánchez’s decision to sponsor the recognition of Palestine within Europe. One of them is the����from its junior left-wing partner in the ruling coalition, another is the��considerable��support for Palestine’s recognition in Spain. Sánchez also seeks to project an image of Spain as an internationally relevant actor.

More generally, the countries that are proposing to recognise Palestine seek to show in front of both domestic and international audiences that they have a distinct position from other European countries when it comes to Israel/Palestine.��

The countries supporting this recognition would have preferred to take this step together with other member states. As this is unlikely to happen in the short to medium term, they have decided to move ahead in a smaller format. The institutional setting of the EU, with its principle of unanimity for major foreign policy decisions, has traditionally increased the leverage of countries that are closer to Israel.

At the same time, the decision of some European countries to increase pressure on Israel cannot be divorced from the ongoing war in Ukraine. In non-Western countries, Europe’s reputation has been severely undermined by its inability to condemn Israel’s war against Gaza.

"Europe is highly vulnerable to claims of double standards every time it condemns Russian attacks against civilians in Ukraine but remains silent in the face of similar Israeli attacks in Gaza"

Convincing countries in the Global South that Russia needed to be shunned due to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine was already��complicated��enough before the beginning of the war in Gaza. The conflict in Ukraine has often been perceived as a European matter, although its��ramifications��in terms of food security and energy prices have been global.

Some European leaders, as observed in several����by Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez, are concerned that Europe’s inaction regarding the Gaza War is endangering support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. Indeed, Europe is highly vulnerable to claims of double standards every time it condemns Russian attacks against civilians in Ukraine but remains silent in the face of similar Israeli attacks in Gaza.��

The recognition of Palestine by some EU countries will not have direct practical implications. However, it might succeed in delivering two key messages. First, that an increasingly radical Israeli government that expands the occupation of the West Bank and subjects Gaza to inhuman conditions cannot dictate the timing and form of Palestine’s recognition. Second, that there are relevant differences in how different EU countries approach the occupation of Palestine and the ongoing war in Gaza.

The EU countries promoting Palestine’s recognition do not feel��represented��by the pro-Israeli stance of Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the EU Commission. They are also dissatisfied with the joint statements that have emerged from the meetings of the EU foreign affairs ministers and heads of government, which require unanimity and always reflect the lowest common denominator among EU countries.��

The current push by some EU countries to recognise Palestine as a state represents an effort to bypass the EU’s sometimes paralysing need for consensus by using one of the main foreign policy tools states have at hand, namely the recognition of other sovereign states. However, the fact remains that Gaza has been widely destroyed, with 62 percent of the houses damaged or uninhabitable, while Israel is occupying more and more land in the West Bank.

At the same time, the Palestinian Authority’s power and legitimacy are more compromised than ever. In this context, the recognition of Palestine by some EU countries is unlikely to bring the emergence of a viable Palestinian state with full sovereignty much closer.

Marc Martorell Junyent is a graduate of International Relations and holds an MA in Comparative and Middle East Politics and��Society from the University of Tübingen (Germany). He has been published in the��London School of Economics Middle East Blog,��Middle East Monitor,��Inside Arabia,��Responsible Statecraft��and��Global Policy.��

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