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What precedes modern warfare? A lofty and grave sermon from, more often than not, a Western head of state. Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1964 Speech to Congress (ahead of Vietnam). George W. Bush’s 2003 Address to the Nation (pre Iraq). Barack Obama’s 2011 Speech on Libya. The list goes on.

Uniting these verbal landmarks is a distinct mechanism and message: we are saving you from yourselves, saving you from the Communist Viet Cong, saving you from Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi. The West has mastered the craft of this PR game – just look at its colonial and post-colonial CV.

The most recent addition to that resumĂ© is Benjamin Netanyahu's 8 October message to the Lebanese People, as seen next to people’s Minecraft tutorials and Mr Beast adverts. In terms of theatre and topsy-turvy morals, Netanyahu’s four minute speech did not disappoint:

‘To every mother and father in Lebanon [...] there is a better way for your children. Stand up and take your country back from [Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorists]. You have a once in a decade opportunity to save Lebanon before it [turns into] the destruction and suffering we see in Gaza.’

Imagine giving someone parental advice after you’ve butchered over Gazan children – not to mention hundreds of Lebanese kids in recent weeks. With an air of White Saviour avuncularity, Netanyahu’s message boils down to: “In the name of self-defence, I have no choice. If you don’t start killing each other, I’ll do it for you”. Masked as a proposal, the speech is nothing more than an all-too-familiar justification for war, albeit a particularly absurd one at that.

Forever war

To clarify, in a world with many alternatives, Netanyahu presents the Lebanese people with just two options: either face the fate of Gaza, or be drawn into a civil war like that of 1975-90, which destroyed Lebanon and continues to haunt it. Either would suit Netanyahu’s strategy of very well, delaying the real solution for regional peace that Israel has always ignored: dignity, recognition and self-determination for the Palestinian people.

During the Lebanese civil war, the Israeli government played a huge role in stirring up Lebanon’s sectarian divisions, both funding and arming the Christian-dominated South Lebanon Army and Lebanese Phalangists – militias that collaborated with the IDF and committed numerous atrocities, such as the at Sabra and Shatila refugee camp.

Today, it is no secret that Hezbollah has very real opponents in Lebanon. In fact, they have been growing louder and stronger in recent years, especially among certain Christian political groups that blame Hezbollah and Iran for starting the current war, and much more. Some of these critics – from Christian, Sunni, Druze communities and beyond – would have cheered on Netenyahu’s speech, a reflection of Lebanon’s deep divisions that Israel is so clearly seeking to exploit.

Although the IDF has focused its attack on Shia parts of Lebanon, most of whom support Hezbollah, it is bombing Christian parts of the country and (as well as Sunni and Druze neighbourhoods), that could push various political factions against Hezbollah – or towards them.

Over the last month, Lebanon has already seen moments of sectarian fracturing, such as reports of people banning displaced Shia families from renting their homes, both out of discrimination and fear of being targeted by the IDF. Following Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, some Lebanese people (and Syrians) were seen celebrating and mocking his death. Other instances of community tensions have circulated widely online, raising fears of sectarian violence.

Unity

However, these moments have been outmatched by a stronger mood of unity and strength against Israeli aggression, one that transcends Lebanon’s political and religious differences, both in parliament and on the streets. Civil society, charities and grassroots movements have stepped up to feed and shelter the hundreds of thousands of internally displaced families, bringing together volunteers of all sects and ages.

Due to the scarcity of state-run services in Lebanon, these informal networks are very mature. In Beirut, many of them emerged from the aftermath of the 2020 port explosion, which left tens of thousands without a home.

Indeed, it is well known that during times of acute crisis Lebanese people tend to unite. This is especially true in the face of external aggression, whether that’s the Islamic State or Israel. This was very clear during the 2006 Lebanon-Israel war, which only strengthened Hezbollah nationally and regionally, despite the group’s significant internal critics and mixed military results.

Against a foe as well-armed as the IDF, all Hezbollah needs to do to win is survive; and it most certainly will. Just look at how Hamas is prevailing – and with just a fraction of Hezbollah’s strength.

It’s a Western fantasy, espoused by a minority in Lebanon, that the Lebanese people will now rise up and, alongside the IDF, fight a Hezbollah weakened by war. Even if certain groups might consider such a move, they simply don’t have the popular support, organisational capacity or, crucially, arms to do so.

Long gone are the days of the Lebanese civil war where there were formidable Christian and Sunni militias, backed by a combination of Soviet-era forces. Hezbollah’s military prowess is incomparable. It is well-trained, well-armed and combat experienced.

Besides, what person in Lebanon, however anti-Hezbollah, wants to be publicly seen to collaborate with Israel? An Israel that the vast majority of Lebanese people have looked upon with utter disgust this year as it commits endless crimes against humanity in Gaza and the West Bank, all the while backed by a US that asks the world to condemn Hamas and Hezbollah. An Israel that is now bombing Lebanon indiscriminately too and, quite possibly, looking to occupy its southern region as well – much as it did between 1982 and 2000.

In short, anti-Israel sentiment is at its highest in decades across Lebanon, the region and globally. As rag-tag Hezbollah fights the IDF Goliath, who could be seen to benefit from partners as morally bankrupt as Israel and the US? They, and their proposed government, would have no legitimacy.

It is more than likely that Israel understands this, that Netanyahu knows a widespread Lebanese revolt against Hezbollah is simply impossible. And so, when he pretends to give Lebanon the choice between “Gaza’s fate” or “rising up”, his true motivations are all too clear.

Sebastian Shehadi is a freelance journalist and a contributing writer at the New Statesman.

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