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Sociologically speaking, the Palestinian led��October 7 attack��is a 'normal' act of resistance to a protracted process of colonisation. Particularly since 2000, when the Israeli government decided not to implement the Oslo peace process, engaging instead in violently crushing the second Intifada, occupying the West Bank, and the siege of Gaza,��it is wishful thinking to expect Palestinian resistance to be 'beautiful'.

One year later, I must admit that this has been the most difficult 12 months of my life, watching daily the��graphic Israeli genocide on TV and the massive destruction of buildings, schools, universities, and infrastructure even if I felt proud of the heroic Palestinian resistance. The price paid has been the agonising annihilation of Gaza, over 42,000 people killed, and more than 100,000 injured (some predicting it could be triple this figure). In the��West Bank��over 600 have been killed.��Most of the victims overall have been civilians.

Silencing free speech & academic freedoms

Many around me have lost faith in��Western countries��like��the USA, Canada, the UK, France and Germany, for their weaponisation of��antisemitism. They pretend that it is antisemitic to hold Israel accountable over violations of international humanitarian laws.

In the US, the government has even taken several steps to silence pro-Palestine speech and criticism of Israel. For example, a��new bill (known as HR 6090) seeks to quash dissent on college campuses, also there have been threats to on the ICC (including family members of ICC staff) over seeking arrest warrants of Israeli officials who stand accused of violating international law,��could be banned, and the Leahy Law has been violated...to name a few.

Despite all of this, the powerful solidarity among populations worldwide towards the Palestinian struggle, including within student movements, gives some hope for the future.

The “populist” attitude that wants to throw out modernity and the universality of human rights, on the other hand, has been shown to be inconsistent. Indeed, I ask Western scholars who oppose domestic violence against women in the Middle East why they don't do the same when it comes to Israel's mass killing of civilian women in Gaza?

In reality, European politics and its organic intellectuals have lost their knowledge authority or referentiality, and even their credibility. I am much more inclined to encourage engagement with African and South American human rights scholars and activists who better understand and address human suffering.

What we can expect now

It is clear that the rogue state, Israel, wants to draw Lebanon and Iran into a war and kill everyone on a mass scale. At the same time, it seems that Iran, as argued by Abdie Kazemipur, has created an impasse for itself and its allies: if it responds to Israel’s attacks and provocations, it will be drawn into a direct war with Israel/US; if not, Israel will continue with striking closer and closer against all opposing parties and escalating the crisis, with impunity. A lose-lose situation for Iran; and with that, a lose-lose situation for Lebanon.

I agree with that as Israel has used the peace process as a process without peace (pacification of the Palestinians while accelerating the Jewish settlements), Iran has used the war process -�� a process without real war relaying in its proxies, particularly in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq to carry out some military actions. Most of the 200 missiles that were sent by Iran were intercepted by the American and Israeli Iron clad, thus had little effect. The real war has been against the Arab Spring (of course not only Iran but other Arab and Western countries).������������

Hezbollah received a serious blow concerning its communication system, and the assassination of its leader Sayed Hasan Nasrallah. While I consider it ethical that they support Palestinian resistance in Gaza, it is time they get a better grasp and understanding of reality in order to better plan their strategy. This means more military capability, better understanding of geopolitics, more transparent politics and less arrogant speeches, i.e. not raising the expectation of their base too high. Let's not forget that while Hezbollah spent so much effort intervening in Syria to repress the people, Israel was focusing on collecting AI data about their militants and developing drones.

Israel's technological superiority has had a detrimental impact in Gaza and Lebanon, though much less in the former as Hamas leaders have kept more traditional means of communication. Despite all these setbacks, I hope Hezbollah will soon surprise us with its capability to undermine the Israel's genocide.������

Nevertheless, my feeling is that the only possible victor is Palestine. Palestinians before 7 October seemed doomed to being forever subjugated to Israeli colonial practices. Today, there is hope that their struggle is more international. Both solidarity movements and various governments around the world may now take responsibility for ending this apartheid and Israel's colonial violence. After all, 124 countries voted in favour of the September 2024 United Nations General Assembly resolution that sets a deadline for Israel to end its illegal occupation of Palestinian territory. Only 14 countries voted against.

Whilst I try to pull hope from under the rubble, I also grow more pessimistic. I guess in the end, amidst a sea of bad surprises, there just might be a good surprise.

Sari Hanafi��is currently a Professor of Sociology, Director of the Center for Arab and Middle Eastern Studies and Chair of the Islamic Studies program at the American University of Beirut.�� He was the President of the International Sociological Association (2018-23). He was also the editor of��Idafat: the Arab Journal of Sociology��(Arabic) (2017-2022), and author of��Studying Islam in the Arab World��(2023).

Follow him on X:��@hanafi1962

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