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The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has assured that Iraq’s first population census in over three decades will not alter demographics in disputed areas like Kirkuk, citing a joint agreement with Baghdad.

However, Kurdish analysts remain skeptical, warning of potential political misuse of the data.

The census, finalised on Friday, marks the first comprehensive survey since 1987 to include both federal Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, raising hopes for improved governance and resource allocation. However, it has also ignited concerns about its potential political use, particularly in resolving disputes over territories contested by Baghdad and the KRG.

The Supreme Census Authority on Saturday the conclusion of the "Household Registry" phase, which achieved a near-complete coverage rate of individuals, families, and buildings. Describing the process as a "remarkable achievement", officials lauded the participation of citizens and the efforts of field researchers, who overcame significant logistical challenges.

Results from the census are expected to be announced this week.

Despite the operational success, Kurdish political observers have expressed unease. The census has reignited fears about the disputed areas, including Kirkuk, where demographics remain a sensitive issue under Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution. The provision, which mandates a referendum to resolve jurisdictional disputes, has remained unimplemented since its 2007 deadline.

Fahmi Burhan, head of the KRG’s board for disputed territories, emphasiwed that the census outcomes would be grounded in the 1957 population records to prevent demographic manipulation.

"There is a joint agreement between the ministries of planning in Iraq and the KRG to ensure that individuals not registered in 1957 will be required to return to their provinces of origin," Burhan told °®Âþµº. "We believe this will safeguard Kirkuk’s demographics from alterations by any ethnic group. The Kurds participated decently in the census, and no major issues arose in the process."

Skepticism Among Kurdish Observers

Not all share Burhan’s optimism. Kurdish academics and political analysts remain wary, citing a history of displacement targeting Kurdish communities in disputed territories.

"The Kurdish areas outside the KRG [ the disputed areas] have faced systematic displacement over decades,"  Bahrooz Jaafar, a Kurdish researcher originally from the disputed areas told TNA. "From the Arabisation policies of the former Baath regime to the displacement caused by ISIS and the aftermath of the 2016 events, thousands of Kurdish families from Kirkuk, Sinjar, and other areas now live in the Kurdistan Region."

Critics argue that while the census omits direct questions about ethnicity or religion, the use of Iraq’s national identity card — where such information is recorded — could allow the government to identify demographic distributions with ease.

"The federal government could exploit this data to influence political outcomes," Jaafar warned. "The stated purpose of the census may be to inform service provision, but we remain skeptical about hidden agendas."

The Iraqi government and KRG have sought to reassure stakeholders by emphasising that the census will focus on development and resource planning. Earlier this month, the KRG secured a commitment that the process in disputed areas would reflect residents’ place of origin rather than current residence, referencing data from the 1957 census and migration ministry records.

In 2017, federal forces reclaimed Kirkuk from Kurdish Peshmerga, furthering regional tensions. Recent incidents, including fatalities amid security clashes, highlight the volatile atmosphere overshadowing political negotiations.

The northern, oil-rich city of Kirkuk is home to about 1.77 million Kurds, Turkmen, and Arabs. Located 238 kilometres north of Baghdad, Kirkuk is an ethnically mixed province and has long been at the centre of disputes between the federal government in Baghdad and the KRG.

In a statement, the KRG reiterated that the census must not be used to undermine the implementation of Article 140. "This census must, under no circumstances, be utilised to influence the disputed areas’ demographics or political future," it said.

Looking Ahead

This census will provide Iraq with its first accurate and comprehensive population data in decades. The last nationwide census was conducted in 1987, and the most recent count, in 1997, excluded the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. Current estimates place Iraq's population at approximately 50 million.

Iraq’s census, delayed multiple times since 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, comes as the country grapples with growing demands for equitable development. The government aims to use the data to address disparities in electricity, water, and other services.

However, whether the census will fulfill its development goals or exacerbate existing tensions remains uncertain. The results, due this week, will likely shape Iraq’s political and social landscape for years to come. For now, the government and the KRG face the challenge of ensuring that this historic effort fosters unity rather than deepens divisions.