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Iran has withdrawn most of its forces from eastern Syria, including elite units from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), after a decade-long intervention supporting Bashar Al-Assad's regime.

Many of the Iranian and proxy fighters fled across the border to Iraq while others headed to Iran or Lebanon, leaving behind significant military equipment that was either destroyed by Israeli airstrikes or seized by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

According to US officials, the retreat represents a heavy blow to Tehran's ambitions in Syria, which once served as the linchpin of its so-called "axis of resistance" against Israel, with its overseas expeditionary Quds Force all but decimated.

Syria served as a pivotal part of Tehran’s broader strategy to establish a 'land bridge' to Hezbollah in Lebanon from Iran, and project its power across the region. However, following the collapse of Assad’s forces in late 2024 and Israel's military campaign against Tehran proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the situation rapidly deteriorated for Tehran.

US State Department’s top Middle East official Barbara Leaf labelled the Iranian retreat "extraordinary" and suggested that the strategic terrain in Syria has now become too hostile for a return of a significant Iranian military presence.

She said on Monday: "Which is not to say they will not try to reinsert themselves, but very hostile terrain."

In December, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to acknowledge the setback following months of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian proxies in Syria and Hezbollah.

"Some people, due to a lack of proper analysis and understanding, claim that with the recent events in the region, the bloodshed in defence of the shrine was wasted," Khamenei added. "They are making this grave mistake; the blood was not wasted."

The new political reality in Syria, under the influence of Sunni Islamist groups like HTS, sees Iran’s presence as a major threat. The country's de-facto leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa emphasised that the defeat of Assad had "set the Iranian project in the region back by 40 years".

US officials believe that Iran may attempt to re-establish its influence over time, but this will be difficult due to the entrenched opposition from HTS and other groups now holding sway in the country.

"This, along with the collapse of the Assad regime, has reduced Iran’s influence in the region and their ability to support and sponsor these once powerful terrorist organisations to carry out their national security objectives," said Mick Mulroy, a former Trump Pentagon official, retired Central Intelligence Agency officer and U.S. Marine. 

Andrew Tabler, a former US National Security Council official, added that the new reality represents a "cataclysmic failure" for Iran, whose influence in Syria may never fully recover.