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Bad news for those hoping Lebanon will not slip into bloody conflict like its neighbour Syria. As ever, Lebanon teeters on the edge on civil war.

Islamic State fighters group are setting up trenches in the mountains surrounding the Lebanese town of Arsal, which has witnessed fierce clashes over the past year between the army and militant groups.

In some areas, IS fighters and Lebanese soldiers are just 20 metres apart, but it appears that neither side is hungry for a fight - at least not yet.

IS fighters occupying positions around Wadi Hamid, close to the Syrian border, are within range of Lebanese rifles, but the troops have not yet fired a bullet.

Past clashes

In the past, Lebanese artillery has fired on IS positions in the Qalamoun region, on the Syrian side of the border. This would suggest some level of participation between the Lebanese army and the Syrian regime.

But anyone who visits Lebanese army positions and checkpoints around Arsal will understand why the soldiers are not ready to face them at closer range.

Lebanese army hardware is no match for the IS, but a more practical consideration is that Beirut officials do not want to fire the first shot that could spark an extremist assault on Lebanon.

Another issue is the 25 soldiers that remain captives of the Nusra Front and the Islamic State group. Any aggression could result in their deaths. In addition, the militants' demands for their release include the creation of a buffer zone around Arsal.

Return of Nusra

Over in Syria, the IS has sent some of its leaders to the Qalamoun region, and absorbed a number of rebel battalions.

The establishment of "safe zones" coincided with a blizzard that has hit the region.

Sources believe the IS is looking for "safe areas" to act as staging posts during the bitterly cold weather the mountainous region experiences during winter.

But western Qalamoun is not exclusively IS turf. Nusra has begun to regroup, recruit, and call in "reserves" and veterans of battles with Hizballah in Qalamoun as it seeks to counter the IS in the area.

War in the hills

Although the relationship between the IS group and Nusra remains frosty, there is nothing substantial to suggest that a battle between the two sides is imminent. But past experiences have shown that the IS group refuses to share power with other factions in its territory, which could lead to a face-off with the al-Qaeda group.

Nusra also appears to have learned from their mistakes during their confrontations with Hizballah. It has been said that Nusra leaders are replicating the guerilla tactics employed by the Shia Lebanese group when they took on the Israeli army in the war in southern Lebanon in 2006.

This article is an edited translation from our Arabic edition.

Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of al-Araby al-Jadeed, its editorial board or staff.