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For thousands of years, Iraq and ancient Mesopotamia have been known as a surrounded by an otherwise inhospitable climate. Iraq is also known in Arabic as Bilad al-Rafidayn, or the Land of the Two Rivers, in reference to the Tigris and Euphrates that have long sustained some of the world’s oldest civilisations.

Despite this rich and fertile history, Iraq’s water sources are due to domestic neglect and regional powers such as Turkey and Iran damming up waters that have historically flowed through the country.

If Iraq’s water resources – vital to life – are put under any additional strain, conflicts could erupt not over fossil fuels, but over this that is essential to life – both human and otherwise.

"If Iraq's water resources – vital to life – are put under any additional strain, conflicts could erupt not over fossil fuels, but over this key fundamental resource that is essential to life – both human and otherwise"

Desertification and dust storms

In recent weeks, Iraq has been buffeted by seemingly that have covered the Middle Eastern country in an ominous orange haze. Aside from the obvious respiratory conditions that these dust storms have caused, they have also led to fatalities.

Flights were , government offices shuttered, and thousands were since Iraq came to a halt, and the dust storms have led to the death of at least one Iraqi and several in neighbouring Syria.

The latest dust storm is the eighth in just one month with more such incidents in the near future, indicating that these are more than simply a freak occurrence.

Adding to the dust storms are Iraq’s now-annual scorching summer heats. While Iraq has always been a hot country, the recent spikes in temperatures – that can hit as high as 50 degrees Celsius – have been amplified recently, particularly due to and a shortage of air conditioning.

The searing temperatures, increased water and soil salinity, and the gradually declining annual rainfall has led to another problem – .

Already this year, the lack of water has led the Iraqi government to order farmers to cultivate only they would be harvesting close to this time of year. The reduced size of arable land, and the added strain of high temperatures and lack of water, have meant that farmers have quite often watched their harvests wilt to half their usual size.

Agriculture ministry spokesman Hamid al-Nayef said the state was helping by raising the purchase price in order to pay producers around $500 per tonne of wheat.

In 2019 and 2020, wheat harvests had reached five million tonnes, enough to guarantee “self-sufficiency” for Iraq, he told AFP.

This season, Iraq may only grow 2.5-3 million tonnes of wheat, “not enough for a whole year for the Iraqis,” Nayef acknowledged. “We will have to import,” he said.

However, that may not be a readily available solution. As is often the case with economics, Iraq’s problems have also been impacted by international worries, particularly as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had an on the prices of fuel, fertilisers and seeds.

Russia and Ukraine are both in the top ten of wheat exporters globally, sitting at third and tenth respectively. As the war between the two continues, this has had a on the export of hundreds of millions of tonnes of wheat, impacting the global supply while simultaneously ramping up prices.

While global warming and the climate crisis have impacted much of the world, it has been felt particularly acutely in Iraq, a country already ravaged by war, mismanagement of natural resources (including water), and a political system that is stunted by corruption and nepotism.

This has left Iraq more vulnerable and – such as Ukraine – in addition to spiralling costs resulting from supply chain problems that have been felt on an international scale, particularly as China – Iraq’s largest investor – attempts to eradicate its latest wave of coronavirus.

It has also left Iraq – weakened by decades of war and a lack of sovereignty – at the mercy of its neighbours.

Turkey, despite its rhetoric that often champions countries deemed to be in need – such as Somalia – seems to have little problem with continuing to on both the Tigris and the Euphrates to generate hydroelectricity. This has led to, in some cases, a drop of almost two-thirds of expected water flow into Iraq.

"While global warming and the climate crisis has impacted much of the world, it has been felt particularly acutely in Iraq, a country already ravaged by war, mismanagement of natural resources,Ěýand a political system that is stunted by corruption and nepotism"

While Ankara’s decision to build these dams has alleviated some of Turkey’s energy problems, it has exacerbated Iraq’s water problems, leading to receding river banks, , and increased soil salinity – a death knell for agriculture.

The water flow has been so badly weakened that the salt water of the Arabian Gulf has begun to flow further inland, further damaging Iraq’s soil.

Iraq’s neighbour to the east, meanwhile, has also been the source of damaging water policies. Iran has stymied the flow of the Shatt al-Arab river by digging canals to the Bahmanshir tributary, leading to not only a 90 percent drop in water, but also a shifting of the international border by affecting the Shatt’s dividing thalweg line in favour of Iran.

Such is the level of distress in Iraq at its receding water supplies that the authorities in Baghdad – ordinarily very friendly to Iran – announced in January this year that they would seek action against Iran to compel it to respect international treaties.

The thalweg line in the Shatt was one of the key causes behind the Iran-Iraq War in 1980. While there is little chance that Iraq will be able to militarily prosecute a war to secure its borders now, this water and border issue may be the spark of a future conflict between the two uneasy neighbours.

Domestic political impasse continues

Iraq’s political impasse continues as last October’s election winners have continued to , following staunch resistance from a coalition of rival Shia Islamists who are hesitant to give up their share of power.

Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, whose bloc won last year’s election, has presided over multiple attempts to form a majority government but has failed to realise his ambitions.

This led him to declare last Sunday on that his bloc would cede the ground to the other opposition parties to try and form a government, and that his Sairoun coalition will instead sit in the opposition for “no less than 30 days”.

"The longer Iraq stays in political paralysis, the greater the fury felt by Iraqis will be, particularly as the water crisis worsens, summer temperatures cause tempers to flare, and food prices skyrocket"

In a televised address on Monday, a visibly accused the “obstructing third” of Iraqi parliamentarians – largely a coalition of – of being susceptible to “corruption and vice” and blamed them for not allowing the Iraqi people to have a strong, majority government.

Sadr also hinted that he may, once again, call on his supporters to descend on the streets of Iraqi cities to demonstrate.

More than seven months since the last elections, Iraq is still under a caretaker government led by incumbent Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.Ěý

However, Kadhimi’s government is powerless to do much beyond administering the civil functions of the state. The Iraqi Supreme Federal Court ruled last week that the caretaker government would not be allowed to pursue a legislative agenda and would instead simply oversee the running of the government until a new one could replace it.

This means that, despite numerous promises of change, Iraqis are once again faced with a that has seen politicians bickering over ministries and clerics dictating the terms of an Iraqi democracy that has many of the trappings of a Shia theocracy.

Ultimately, it seems likely that they will come to some sort of concession, even if Sadr continuously rules out forming a coalition government. The longer Iraq stays in political paralysis, the greater the fury felt by Iraqis will be, particularly as the water crisis worsens, summer temperatures cause tempers to flare, and

If a new government with a new legislative agenda is not in office soon and, most importantly, is not viewed by Iraqis to be initiating policies that will reduce the terrible burdens that they have been facing since 2003, there is a high chance we may yet witness yet another violent summer.

The Iraq Report is a regular feature at °®Âţµş.

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