Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani will visit Iran on Wednesday, 8 January 2025, leading a high-level delegation of ministers and security officials. The visit is expected to include discussions with senior Iranian officials on dissolving Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) and other Iran-backed militias in Iraq, a move aimed at shielding the country from potential strikes by the United States and Israel.
According to a statement from his office, the visit aims to strengthen bilateral ties and build upon progress achieved during Iranian President Masoud Pazshkian's visit to Baghdad in September 2024. Regional developments are also expected to feature prominently in the discussions.
Political analyst Ihsan Al-Shammari, head of the Baghdad-based Political Thinking Centre, described the visit as "crucial," highlighting its alignment with broader changes reshaping the Middle East.
"The visit falls within the framework of changes in the Middle East, particularly Iraq's inclusion in a 'New Middle East.' This new order primarily aims to end Iranian influence, whether through its political allies or its military proxies represented by armed factions," Al-Shammari said to °®Âþµº.
"Al-Sudani likely sees this visit as an opportunity to gain the backing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for dismantling these armed groups. This is especially crucial as Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, Iraq's top Shia cleric, appears to support addressing the issue of armed factions. He has previously expressed concerns about their continued presence during meetings with UN representatives," he added.
Al-Shammari underscored the stakes for Iraq, warning, "The continued presence of these factions places Iraq at risk of being targeted by Israel or the United States, potentially destabilising the country. This situation could jeopardise not only Al-Sudani's government but also the pro-Iran political bloc."
He also noted that Al-Sudani had met Ismail Qaani, commander of Iran's Quds Force, during a visit to Baghdad to discuss the topics to be addressed during his meeting with Iran's Supreme Leader.
"I think it is very difficult for Iran, especially now, under Israeli and US threats, to fully agree to dissolving its last proxies in Iraq. I believe Qaani’s visit to Iraq aimed to achieve a unified Iraqi stance in line with Iran's diplomatic position on US and Israeli threats while also preparing Iraq's factions for possible escalations," Al-Sudani stressed. "Qaani might have suggested a roadmap for dissolving some factions as a tactical manoeuvre rather than an end to Iran’s influence or control over the Iraqi state and its weapons. Fully dismantling Iranian influence and all factions is unlikely at this stage."
Focus on armed factions
Two senior Iraqi officials revealed that addressing the role of armed factions in Iraq will be a key objective of the visit. Discussions are expected to explore measures for dismantling or restructuring these groups, a step seen as vital to alleviating Western pressure on Baghdad.
An Iraqi official told , the Arabic-language sister publication to TNA, "The issue of Iraq's armed factions and minimising their activities will be a key topic in the discussions with Iranian officials. The Prime Minister will seek Iran's support in reducing the activities of these factions, as Baghdad faces mounting pressure from various international parties regarding this matter."
Another senior official disclosed that this issue had recently been raised during a visit to Baghdad by Ismail Qaani. The Iraqi delegation is expected to discuss disengaging from the Syrian conflict, halting the activities of armed factions, and addressing concerns over long-range drones reportedly produced or imported by these groups from Iran.
Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), a coalition of mostly Iran-backed groups, formally integrated into Iraq's armed forces in 2016.
Statements from Iraqi political analysts and an advisor to the Iraqi prime minister seem to confirm US demands to disband the PMF, which played a critical role in defeating ISIS but has been accused of operating as a parallel force with strong ties to Iran.
The PMF's involvement in regional conflicts has also drawn scrutiny.
During the early stages of Israel's war on Gaza in October 2023, factions within the PMF, under the umbrella of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, reportedly launched drone and rocket attacks on Israeli military positions. One such drone strike originating from Iraq killed two Israeli soldiers and injured 24 others in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights.
Al-Sudani recently rejected external calls for the dissolution of the PMF, emphasising its legal and institutional role. "It is unacceptable for conditions or dictates to be imposed on Iraq, and there are no conditions for the dissolution of the PMF," he said in a recent televised statement, pointing out that a 2014 parliamentary law officially established the PMF.
While Al-Sudani is expected to meet Iran's Supreme Leader, it remains unclear whether Tehran will support disbanding its proxies in Iraq. Analysts believe that Iran may be hesitant to dismantle its armed allies amidst heightened tensions with the US and Israel.