Iran-aligned Iraqi militias have ceased attacks on Israeli targets in pre-1948 Palestinian territories for over a month, responding to heightened pressures from the Iraqi government and the ruling coalition. This development comes as the United States ramps up demands to limit the activities of Iran-backed armed groups, which Washington views as "destabilising" the region.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of factions supported by Iran, launched numerous drone and rocket attacks on Israeli military installations during the early stages of Israel's war on Gaza, which began on October 7, 2023. In a significant incident, a drone strike originating from Iraq killed two Israeli soldiers and injured 24 others in the occupied Golan Heights.
However, these attacks abruptly ceased, with insiders attributing the pause to a concerted effort by Iraq's government and its Shia-led ruling coalition to shield the country from potential Israeli or US attacks.
Political dynamics behind the ceasefire
"The armed factions halted their operations following the launch of a ceasefire initiative between Hezbollah and the Zionist entity," explained Ghani al-Ghadhban, an Iraqi researcher specialising in political and security affairs, said to °®Âþµº.
He added, "Significant pressures from the US, particularly on Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani, also played a pivotal role."
Al-Ghadhban noted that US officials warned Prime Minister al-Sudani of their inability to guarantee the safety of Iraqi facilities if attacks continued and their unwillingness to pressure Israel to deter retaliatory strikes. He highlighted the intricate relationship between the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) and unauthorised militias, stating that dissolving the PMF remains a key US condition for curbing Iran's regional influence.
"The Iraqi government cannot dissolve the PMF outright, as its establishment was backed by a parliamentary majority vote. Any resolution would require parliamentary approval," al-Ghadhban clarified. He suggested that efforts are already underway to gradually dismantle militias operating outside state control.
Prime Minister al-Sudani recently firmly rejected external demands to dissolve the PMF, emphasising its legal and institutional role within Iraq. Speaking to state television, al-Sudani stated, "It is unacceptable for conditions or dictates to be imposed on Iraq, and there are no conditions for the dissolution of the PMF." He underscored the PMF's status as an official entity established by a 2014 parliamentary law.
During a recent visit to Baghdad, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly urged Prime Minister al-Sudani to take decisive measures against rogue militias. Despite these pressures, disbanding the PMF faces significant challenges. While the PMF was formally integrated into Iraq's armed forces in 2016, some factions retain strong allegiance to Iran, complicating efforts to fully align them under state control.
Sakfan Sindi, Deputy Head of Iraq's Security and Defence Committee, confirmed to TNA that no formal request for disbanding the PMF has been made by either the government or the US, emphasising the lack of parliamentary support for such a move.
Prime Minister Al-Sudani recently issued an ultimatum to his advisors: either adhere to their official roles or step down. This followed controversial remarks by his advisor Ibrahim al-Sumaidaie, who claimed, "If the PMF factions do not comply with American conditions and dissolve themselves, this will be imposed on them by force."
He also suggested that "Iraq is moving towards normalising relations with the 'new Syria'."
In a statement, al-Sudani's media office clarified that advisors must seek approval before making public statements and refrain from expressing personal opinions that contradict state policies. The directive underscored the Iraqi prime minister's effort to maintain government discipline and avoid confusion.
Future implications
While Iraqi militias have paused their activities, Israel has continued to issue warnings of pre-emptive strikes against Iranian-backed groups. Iraqi officials have dismissed Israeli complaints to the UN Security Council as unfounded provocations, but analysts caution that the risk of regional escalation remains significant.
Meanwhile, US forces in Iraq continue to face possible attacks, with retaliatory strikes against militias not always coordinated with Baghdad. The planned withdrawal of US troops—beginning with the Ain al-Asad airbase in Anbar province and a gradual drawdown in Baghdad—is expected to conclude by the end of 2026. However, a residual US presence will remain in Erbil, where ties with the Kurdish Regional Government are strong.
For now, Iraq walks a fine line between domestic and international pressures. Whether this strategy will successfully shield the country from regional conflicts or exacerbate instability remains to be seen.