������

"Return to your land, which can only grow more noble and strong with your presence. Return to it, kiss its soil soaked with the blood of martyrs, and embrace its figs and olives," urged Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a key political ally of Hezbollah, last Wednesday, the day the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was signed.

The 14-month confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah, which escalated into open war over the past two months, has claimed at least 3,800 Lebanese lives, injured 16,000, and displaced more than 1.2 million people from their homes.

With many of its military leaders killed and Israeli bombardments targeting key areas of influence in south Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs, including the destruction of critical supply routes at border crossings between Lebanon and Syria, Hezbollah appears significantly weakened.

Yet, the extent of the group’s military debilitation remains hard to gauge. While both sides are currently claiming victory from the latest conflict and accusing each other of breaking the deal, with Israel saying suspicious movements in villages in the south constitute violations and Lebanon’s army pointing to Israeli tank fire and airstrikes as breaches, questions remain about what kind of Hezbollah will emerge from the conflict and what its next steps in Lebanon could be.

The war's toll on Hezbollah

The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s former Secretary General, dealt a profound blow to the group. For over three decades, Nasrallah oversaw Hezbollah’s transformation from a guerrilla force into the Middle East’s most powerful transnational paramilitary organisation.

Nasrallah was a unifying figure within the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance, a group of regional militant groups, and earned the trust of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.

“Nasrallah was one of the few people outside of Iran - and perhaps the most prominent - who had the full confidence of the Ayatollah,” David Wood, International Crisis Group’s (ICG) Lebanon analyst, told ������.

Naim Qassem, Nasrallah’s successor, faces significant challenges in filling this void. A founding member of Hezbollah and a seasoned administrator, Qassem brings extensive experience and “impeccable credentials” but lacks the charisma and gravitas that made Nasrallah a pivotal leader. Nasrallah’s ability to articulate the group’s vision on both regional and domestic fronts made him a “huge asset” and “quite unique”, Wood said.

Hezbollah’s operations in Syria have also suffered setbacks. According to Lorenzo Trombetta, Middle East correspondent for ANSA and the Italian geopolitical magazine Limes, Israeli airstrikes and the October invasion of south Lebanon forced Hezbollah to divert resources back to Lebanon, exposing “strategic vulnerabilities" elsewhere.

This redeployment, Trombetta noted, opened the door to the capture of Aleppo by Syrian rebels, jolting frontlines that had been dormant for years.

Buffer zone, drones, and frontlines

In his speech announcing Israel’s acceptance of a ceasefire, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared victory: “We have set Hezbollah back by a decade. Three months ago, this would have seemed like science fiction. But we did it. Hezbollah is no longer the same”.

However, Bashir Saade, a Lecturer in Politics and Religion at the University of Stirling and author of 'Hizbullah and the Politics of Remembrance', told TNA that claims of Hezbollah's diminished capacity following Israel's recent actions are overly optimistic. If Israel had truly delivered a decisive blow, it would have pressed its advantage rather than agreeing to a ceasefire, Saade noted.

Despite disruptions to its Iranian supply lines - caused by the destruction of border crossings between Lebanon and Syria and a blockade of Beirut’s airport - Hezbollah continued launching heavier projectile barrages deeper into Israel. These included anti-tank missiles and drones, with strikes targeting sites such as the Israeli port of Ashdod shortly before the ceasefire.

Domestically, Hezbollah demonstrated its ability to resist Israeli ground forces across multiple fronts, including the eastern sector in Khiam, the western sector in Shama, and in Bint Jbeil, according to Trombetta.

“In proving its ability to endure, Hezbollah has shown that Israel cannot eliminate it - an outcome that was far from certain at the outset of the conflict,” Trombetta noted.

Hezbollah also dealt a strategic blow to Israel by forcing the creation of a buffer zone on Israeli territory. The year-long evacuation of 60,000 Israelis - and Hezbollah’s framing of their return as contingent on a ceasefire - has been touted by the group as a major victory, Wood explained.

Ceasefire signed, strategies unfold

Hezbollah has signalled its intention to maintain its military wing, despite the ceasefire agreement’s provision requiring Lebanon to dismantle non-state military infrastructure nationwide.

In his first since the ceasefire, Secretary General Naim Qassem sidestepped the issue of disarmament, focusing instead on “coordination with the Lebanese Armed Forces”.

“The military resistance is not going away, but how it will fit into Lebanon’s future political framework remains unclear,” says Saade. “Hezbollah is primarily a military organisation, with its political elite serving as a vehicle to express and sustain its armed resistance.”

However, Hezbollah’s ability to reorganise militarily during the truce will be limited, according to Trombetta. The group faces ongoing Israeli airstrikes and a renewed offensive in Aleppo and Hama by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the ruling militant group in north-western Syria. The insurgents’ advance on Hama is bringing opposition forces dangerously close to Hezbollah’s supply lines in Homs Governorate.

“If rebel groups, led by HTS, advance toward Homs, they could sever access to the coast and threaten the al-Qusayr logistical corridor,” Trombetta explains. is a critical crossing point for weapons and reinforcements from Lebanon, connecting Damascus to Tartus, Syria’s second-largest port.

The electoral test

Following the ceasefire, Lebanon’s Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri announced a new presidential election session scheduled for 9 January 2025. Lebanon has been without a president since 31 October 2022.

Historically, Lebanese political deadlocks have broken during inflection points, such as the Taif Agreement that ended the Civil War. However, while Berri’s announcement marks a potential breakthrough, divisions among Christian factions complicate the prospects for success.

Several Lebanese political parties now see the latest war as a pressing reason for Hezbollah to disarm and transition into a purely civilian political organisation. Samir Geagea, leader of the Christian Lebanese Forces party, on the day the ceasefire was signed that he rejects “any compromise or arrangement concerning the illegal weapons” of Hezbollah.

Hezbollah’s primary concern remains safeguarding its influence in Lebanon’s institutions, which are strategic assets integral to its survival, explains Trombetta. “Beyond al-Qusayr and Sayyida Zeinab, Lebanese institutions are Hezbollah’s other key lever.”

The 'Axis of Resistance'

Hezbollah’s role within the Axis of Resistance - a cornerstone of Iran’s forward defence strategy of using non-state allies to counter Israel - is likely to diminish, says Joe Macaron, a Global Fellow with the Wilson Center’s Middle East Program.

“Nasrallah was the core of the axis, most notably after the killing of Soleimani, and Hezbollah’s ability to extend its role at the regional level will most probably and gradually diminish over time,” Macaron observes.

Saade, however, contends that Nasrallah’s ‘martyrdom’ could consolidate support for Hezbollah. “Nasrallah now holds even greater symbolic significance and is poised to become the most enduring emblem of resistance,” he explains.

"Killing leaders hastens short-term goals and produces political momentum," Saade concludes. "To create long-term effects in politics and geopolitics, you have to change the status quo, through military action, whether in terms of territory or resource-wise."

Vittorio Maresca di Serracapriola is a researcher and analyst specialising in political economy. He has worked at Triangle, a Beirut-based think tank, and was previously an economics reporter at Reuters. He holds an MSc in Economic History from the University of Oxford

Follow him on X: