Syria could be the next target of Israel's regional military offensive after a ceasefire for Lebanon was agreed this week, with the war against Hezbollah likely to be expanded beyond the Lebanese borders as Bashar Al-Assad rapidly loses support from his neutered patrons.
Syrians have already felt the pain of the Lebanon war with at least 111 refugees killed, including 39 children, during the most intense stage of the Israeli assault between 23 September to 28 November, forcing thousands of families to reluctantly flee to Syria where there is already a strong Hezbollah contingent supporting the Assad regime.
This week's Lebanon ceasefire was reportedly agreed with a separate secret US-Israeli addendum which gives Israel the green light to strike Hezbollah targets inside Syria, including suspected supply chains, something it has already done hundreds of times over the past 10 years (although it rarely admits to the strikes) but monitors have noted a sharp increase in recent months.
Next Israeli target?
Shortly after the Lebanon ceasefire came into effect on Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a rare, direct warning to Bashar Al-Assad saying he is "playing with fire" and implicated the Syrian army in the Hezbollah-Iran network, raising the stakes for Damascus as the rebels advance in the north.
"The Netanyahu statement is important, and it comes as Turkey's allies advance in northern Syria," Mohannad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, told °®Âþµº.
"Assad is definitely weaker today, and his retreat in the north will certainly impact any decision-making on Iran and Hezbollah."
While there is no Israeli hand in the Syrian rebel offensive on Aleppo, the opposition is likely emboldened by the weakness of the Iran-led regional alliance, which Assad has been reliant on for almost all if his successful campaigns against the rebels.
Hezbollah, in particular, has been key to Assad's survival but is now his Achilles' heel as Israel ramps up its attacks in full sight of the Syrian population.
This includes the bombing of an apartment block in Mezzeh, Damascus last month, which killed eight civilians, and another strike targeting the villa of the president's brother, Maher Al-Assad, while Israeli ground incursions have been on the rise in the Syrian Golan Heights.
With no resistance from the Syrian regime forces to these Israeli incursions, Assad looks increasingly vulnerable in the eyes of his opponents.
Axis of Resistance
Hezbollah and IRGC advisors seconded to support the Assad regime are rarely the target of Israeli bombing on the frontlines, but those involved in a Hezbollah and Iranian supply military chain - including Syrian army units - have been, particularly around the Syria-Iraq and Syria-Lebanon borders.
"The Axis of Resistance is not a typical alliance between parties that are on eye-level with each other, more a consequence of the Iranian power protection in the region... Hezbollah can't take action without coordinating with Tehran, and it is, a bit, the same with the Syrian regime, so it consists of unequal members," Bente Scheller, author of 'The Wisdom of Syria’s Waiting Game' and head of the Middle East Division at the Heinrich Boell Foundation, previously told this journalist.
"I think Iran was convinced it was on the road to victory as it was so successful in building up its power in the region over the years. They had to keep Assad in power to ensure the land corridors to support Hezbollah remained active, so Syria remained open to an Iranian presence with bases there and running certain parts of Syria on their own."
With a Russian and Iranian-led counter-offensive from 2015 securing much of Syria for the regime, Tehran was likely surprised by Israel's rapid decapitation of the Hezbollah and IRGC leadership and other military victories in the Levant.
"When Mosul, Raqqa, and Aleppo fell (to Iraqi, Syrian regime and Syrian-Kurdish forces) Tehran felt there were no major Sunni metropolises in the northern (MENA region) so it made them complacent about what was coming or prepare for their vulnerabilities," said Scheller.
Civilian deaths
Israel's air campaign is now more heavily targeting civilian infrastructure and not just IRGC-linked bases. This includes airstrikes on the Syrian border town of Al-Qusayr on Monday, damaging two bridges and routes into nearby Lebanon, while earlier this month a key road linking Damascus to the north was cut after Israel bombed a convoy of trucks in Homs province.
This targeting of roads, bridges, and residential buildings in Syria has seen a sharp uptick in civilian deaths with 35 killed so far this year, including 10 children and 11 women, according to the SNHR.
Fadel Abdul Ghany, director and founder of the SNHR, believes that Hezbollah's infrastructure inside Syria is even more advanced than in southern Lebanon, making it inevitable that the country will witness more Israeli attacks in the coming months.
"There will be an increase in Israeli attacks, particularly as Hezbollah has stockpiled weapons inside Syria for years now. While shipments from Iran have decreased over the past year, for the past ten years arms were sent to Syria on an almost daily basis including from Deir az-Zour," he told °®Âþµº.
"There are supply lines from Iran dedicated to Hezbollah, not the Syrian army, and I think these will be targeted over the coming months."
Assad's entanglement in the Iranian-led regional alliance to prop up his regime has made him more vulnerable to this aggression, even if he has been careful to avoid confrontations with Israel, and it is Syrians who will pay the price, Abdul Ghany said.
"Israel is violating our sovereignty and Assad is responsible for this because allowed these militias to work out of state institutions - including military bases - and this is the justification Israel is using for striking Syria," he added.
"Regardless of Bashar Al-Assad's actions, this does not excuse Israel for its indiscriminate attacks in Syria, which are increasingly killing civilians."