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Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) on 21 January ratified the final results of the country's first provincial elections in a decade, with Kirkuk taking centre stage as a multi-ethnic province steeped in historical significance and diversity.

The imminent selection of a new local government and governor holds immense importance, as the governor will be tasked with navigating the intricate challenges and aspirations of Kirkuk's dynamic community.

The provincial elections on 18 December, held for the first time in ten years, were characterised by a low turnout attributed to political and public boycotts. Only around 41% of those registered cast a ballot, while just 16 million out of 23 million eligible voters registered for the elections.

For Kirkuk, the vote carried additional weight as the first since 2005, with delays in the electoral process stemming from concerns related to ethnic tensions.

A notable shift in Kirkuk's political landscape emerged in the recent elections, with Kurdish parties, including the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), losing their majority.

The PUK secured five  with 157,649 votes, while the KDP won two seats with 52,278 votes in the 16-seat provincial council. Arab parties won six seats, Turkmens secured two, and a Christian party affiliated with Shia militias won the Christian quota seat.

The post-election scenarios in Kirkuk are complex, marked by uncertainties surrounding potential alliances, the ongoing PUK-KDP feud, and Turkmens' opposition to a Kurdish governor, all of which will significantly influence the future direction of Kirkuk's governance.

������ contacted leaders from the PUK, the KDP and the Turkmen Front, but they all refused to talk about the post-election process given its complexity and sensitivity before formal negotiations begin.

TNA also contacted leaders in the Arab community in Kirkuk, but they were not available to comment.

Entitlement or consensus?

Official meetings among Kurdish, Arab, and Turkmen political parties in Kirkuk have not occurred. However, representatives from these three main components have expressed a shared belief that the position of Kirkuk's governor is their rightful claim.

"Following the elections, certainly, the political and administrative map of the Kurdish areas outside the frontiers of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) will generally change, and the election entitlements should be a main scale for establishing local governments in those areas," said Fahmi Burhan, the head of the Kurdistan Region’s board for disputed territories with Baghdad, in a statement to TNA.

"The Kurds indeed have the right to Kirkuk’s governor as per the election results, but I think there should be a mutual understanding among the components, and Kirkuk’s local government must be elected as per shared views through which stability can return to that area," Burhan added. 

Following the announcement of the final election results, the KDP and the PUK recently held their first meeting. After the meeting, they declared their intention to collaborate in official negotiations with other components to form a new local administration in Kirkuk. This includes discussions on key positions such as the head of the Provincial Council, the governor, two deputies, the mayors of four districts, and officials for 16 sub-districts.  

While Fahmi Burhan expressed optimism about Kurdish unity and their approach to Kirkuk from a "nationalistic" standpoint, information obtained by TNA suggests that both the KDP and PUK have not reached any agreement on how to engage in future negotiations.

This is particularly notable as the two rival parties are currently at odds in the Kurdistan region on various fronts, including oil, expected parliamentary elections in June, and security matters. These internal differences between parties add a layer of complexity to their collaborative efforts in shaping future governance structures in Kirkuk.

While the KDP is a close ally of Turkey, the PUK is also very close to Iran and Tehran’s Iraqi Shia allies that have a majority in the Iraqi parliament.  Iran’s recent ballistic missile attacks on Erbil have exacerbated tensions between the KDP and PUK. Nevertheless, the PUK condemned the attacks.

What are the different scenarios?

The position of governor is the highest executive authority in the province and a candidate is elected by an absolute majority of the council members' votes, as stated in Article 122 of the Iraqi Constitution.

The formation of Kirkuk's local government necessitates active participation from Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen, and Christians, regardless of Provincial Council election results. Under Election Law No. 12 of 2018,  in March 2023, particularly Article 35 for Kirkuk, there is a strong emphasis on equitable representation and governance, underscoring the importance of inclusive participation irrespective of election outcomes.

The law makes it clear that election results do not dictate Kirkuk's legal or administrative status, with this provision applying to a single electoral cycle and acknowledging the unique dynamics of Kirkuk's political landscape.

“Speaking from the prospect that Iraq is a democratic state, the governor should be from the component that has the majority as per the election entitlements, but if we speak of political, regional, and somewhat international agreements, then this is related to the negotiations among the three main components,” Sheikh Burhan al-Assi, a veteran Arab politician from Kirkuk, told TNA.

He also stated that because Kirkuk has a special status under the Iraqi constitution, no component can form a new administration in the disputed city except through alliances and political agreements that preserve the rights and representation of each party.

Regarding the expected scenarios for Kirkuk’s new local government, al-Assi said the two Kurdish parties, the KDP and PUK, can ally either with the Arabs or the Turkmen. The second scenario is that Arabs and Turkmen can reach an agreement with the KDP. In either case, according to al-Assi, the political interests of each party are the decisive factor behind any future agreements. 

He also emphasised that the third scenario is that the PUK could ally with Arab parties and Turkmen. Any political agreement in Kirkuk should be through consensus in which no component is to be marginalised, he added, otherwise, it would fail to form a new local government that serves the people of Kirkuk.

Suspended issues remain unsolved 

The oil-rich city of Kirkuk and its districts, some areas of Diyala, and the Nineveh provinces are considered contested areas between the Iraqi federal government and the KRG. Article 140 of the Iraqi permanent constitution outlined measures in which those areas could remain as part of Iraq or join the KRG. However, implementation has been stalled since 2007.

In 2014, peshmerga security forces assumed control of Kirkuk but were subsequently expelled in 2017 by federal troops after a referendum on Kurdish independence. Tensions persist, evident in a September incident last year where four Kurds were reportedly killed by gunfire from Iraq's security forces amid unrest in the province.

In provincial elections held in 2005, Kurds secured 26 out of 41 seats, Turkmen won nine, but Sunni Arabs only won six seats as most of the community boycotted the political process.

Iraq’s neighbouring countries, especially Iran and Turkey, as well as key international players including the US, the UK, and even Russia, play key roles in drafting the political map in Kirkuk because the province contains large amounts of proven oil and gas. 

With 115 billion barrels of proven crude , Iraq has the world's second-largest endowment of oil, and Kirkuk is  to contain about 9 billion barrels of recoverable oil, i.e. 7.83% of Iraq’s total oil-proven crude oil reserves. 

Regional and international interferences 

“Not only the neighbouring countries but all the world knows the importance of Kirkuk internationally both politically and economically. Kirkuk’s stability means the stability of Iraq and all neighbours of Iraq, especially Iran and Turkey, thus all want to have a foot in this province,” al-Assi said, expressing optimism that all sides can reach a deal to serve the people of Kirkuk.

From 2003 to 2017, the Kurds held the governorship of Kirkuk. Abdul Rahman Mustafa, a Kurdish figure, became the first governor after the 2005 Provincial Council elections. In 2011, Najmaldin Karim, a PUK representative, succeeded him but was later dismissed by the Iraqi parliament after six years. 

The position then passed to Rakan Saeed Al-Jubouri, an Arab, who assumed the role over six years ago and continues as the acting governor since his appointment by then-Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.

Mohammed Haji Mahmoud, the Secretary-General of the Kurdistan Socialist Party, expressed concerns in a recent press conference, attended by TNA, stating that it is highly challenging for the Kurds to maintain control over the governorship of Kirkuk without interference from Iran.

Dana Taib Menmy is ������'s Iraq Correspondent, writing on politics, society, human rights, security, and minorities.

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