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Iran fired 11 ballistic missiles into Iraqi Kurdistan’s capital, Erbil, just before midnight on Monday, alarming residents who heard and felt the thunderous impact throughout the city.

As the smoke cleared, it emerged the target was not military or American-related but the private home of an affluent and well-known Kurdish businessman, Peshraw Dizayee. The attack killed Dizayee, members of his family, and fellow businessman Karam Mikhail.

Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) swiftly claimed responsibility for the attack, baselessly claiming they targeted an Israeli intelligence base.

It isn’t the first time Iran has fired such deadly missiles into Iraqi Kurdistan, far from it. But the attack was the first time Tehran set out to deliberately and directly kill civilians in Erbil in such a blatant manner.

Iran first fired missiles into Iraqi Kurdistan in September 2018. During that attack, unprecedented at the time, a barrage of Iranian Fateh-110s levelled a building where two factions of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran were meeting to discuss reunification, killing 18 and injuring an estimated 50.

In an even more wide-ranging attack, Iran lashed out at the KDPI and other Iranian Kurdish groups across Iraqi Kurdistan with an estimated 70 tactical ballistic missiles and drones in September 2022.

The attack coincided with widespread domestic protests inside Iran following the death of Iranian Kurd Mahsa Jina Amini in police custody earlier that month and was widely seen as a move by Tehran to deflect attention.

The closest precedent to the attack on Dizayee’s civilian residence was undoubtedly the 13 March 2022 Erbil attack when the IRGC fired 12 Fateh-110s at another wealthy businessman’s villa, also claiming it was an Israeli base.

Unlike the tragic case on Monday, nobody was home when the missiles hit, and they caused only material damage. Nevertheless, that strike was unprecedented since it involved Iran directly targeting a non-military and non-American target within Erbil city limits.

Mohammed A. Salih, Senior Fellow at Foreign Policy Research Institute, believes Monday night’s attack was “partly unprecedented and partly not” given some of these past incidents.

“It is not unprecedented because Iran launched direct ballistic missile attacks on the Kurdistan Region in 2020 and 2022,” Salih told ������. “But it is unprecedented in terms of it directly taking civilian casualties.”

The 2020 incident referred to by the analyst was part of Iran’s direct retaliation against US troops in Iraq following the assassination via drone of IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad. Tehran fired the majority of its missiles at US troops stationed in a western Iraqi airbase, . It also fired at least one missile at the US troop base in Erbil International Airport, which failed to explode.

'Domestic consumption purposes'

The latest attack, targeting an area not far from the headquarters of Iraqi Kurdistan’s leading political party, the Kurdistan Democratic Party, also indicates the IRGC’s intention to threaten the Iraqi Kurdish leadership.

KDP President Masoud Barzani remained defiant, : “There is no pride in murdering civilians, you can kill us, but rest assured that the will of the people of Kurdistan shall remain unwavering”.

Salih noted that, on the surface, Iran’s attack was “directed against ‘Israeli’ and/or ‘US’ interests’” but was in reality “a message to the Kurds”.

The attack, he elaborated, aimed to show the Kurds “their vulnerabilities” to “the shock and awe of such attacks to force the Kurdistan Regional Government, particularly Barzani’s KDP, to get in line” with Iran’s regional interests and priorities.

Furthermore, the attacks had “domestic consumption purposes”.

Tehran needed to be seen to have retaliated to the deadly terror attack claimed by Islamic State-Khorasan in Kerman on 3 January, which Iran’s “official propaganda” claimed was masterminded by Israel and executed by the Islamic State (IS).

“Iran’s constantly, though falsely, tied Israel to the KRG,” Salih said. “So, the attack is a means of saying something to its population that it is doing something in the face of Israeli attacks inside and outside Iran in Syria against IRGC commanders.”

Professor David Romano, holder of the Thomas G. Strong Chair in Middle East Politics at Missouri State University, similarly observes how Iran “hopes to demonstrate some deterrent capability” following Israeli and American attacks against its personnel and proxies in the region without provoking all-out war.

“Hitting the Iraqi Kurds in Erbil, under what are almost certainly false premises of targeting ‘Mossad bases,’ allows Iran to do so at little cost,” Romano told ������.

“The Kurdistan Region is too weak to do much about it, Baghdad won’t do much about it, and the United States doesn’t want to do more about it,” he said. “The attacks also serve as a reminder to the Kurdistan Region (as if it needed one) that it should not let Americans or Israelis use access to the region to harm Iran.”

He added: “The regime in Iran also wants to be able to show its supporters that it is giving as good as it’s getting in these attacks, yet for obvious reasons, fears directly targeting American or Israeli assets.”

Romano also pondered if Iran had “additional motives” to specifically target a prominent businessman like Peshraw Dizayee, who oversaw the construction of Empire World, a complex featuring many of Erbil’s most upscale high-rise apartment buildings.

“Were some of Dizayee’s business interests acting as competition to Iranian-linked businesses in Iraq, or was Iran just seeking to demonstrate that it can eliminate even very prominent Kurdish elites?” he said. “These are questions we need to ask.”

Ceng Sagnic, Chief of Analysis of the geopolitical consultancy firm TAM-C Solutions, believes that’s indeed the case.

“Iran has established a consistent pattern of targeting affluent Kurdish individuals in Iraqi Kurdistan,” he told ������. “This serves as a potent deterrent, compelling businesses in the region to avoid trade relations perceived as conflicting with Iran’s interests, such as natural gas exports, or those that exclude Iran’s commercial proxies.”

Furthermore, Sagnic noted that Tehran’s narrative of emphasising Israeli intelligence involvement in Iraqi Kurdistan and companies has been “gaining traction”.

“This narrative, consistently upheld by Tehran, not only influences domestic public opinion in Iran but also prompts the international community to scrutinise these alleged connections,” he said. “The persistent rhetoric and actions against individuals purportedly tied to Israel reinforce Tehran’s desired argument that the entire region is being manipulated by the Israeli-American alliance to conspire against the Iranian regime.”

Iran also needed to simultaneously display its strength in light of recent American and Israeli strikes against its regional interests and showcase the effectiveness of its long-range weaponry and intelligence capabilities without facing significant consequences.

“The Kurdistan Region provides a strategic location for such demonstrations, as unprovoked attacks here incur minimal repercussions while aligning with Mossad conspiracy narratives favoured by Tehran,” Sagnic said.

Iran also needs to deal with the “crucial challenge” of being able to maintain a capacity for operating in foreign territories hosting US forces. Demonstrating its ability to “freely operate and strike” in areas like Iraqi Kurdistan and the Gulf region “strengthens” Tehran’s overall regional influence.

“The purported capability to gather intelligence on a specific residence in Erbil, located just kilometres from the nearest US base, and precisely striking it with missiles not only projects the desired image for Iran but also consolidates the so-called axis of resistance under Iranian leadership,” Sagnic said.

These capabilities and Iran’s willingness to launch such a deadly attack undoubtedly pose a “direct threat” to the Kurdish leadership since it “holds the potential to erode the loyalty of influential businessmen in the region to Iran” out of fear of being next in Iran’s crosshairs.

“Moreover, the deterrence established against foreign capital, attributed to the successful and often surprising Iranian operational activities in the region, is anticipated to discourage Western investments,” Sagnic said.

Overall, the economic implications for Iraqi Kurdistan appear dire.

“Of greater concern is the likelihood that the KRG may struggle to resist Iranian pressure, especially when it directly jeopardises much-needed financial resources,” Sagnic said.

“This indirect yet significant threat extends to the United States, as there is a risk that, in the absence of US support, Erbil may capitulate to Iran’s demands.”

Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist based in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, who writes about Middle East affairs.

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