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Prior to the toppling of Bashar al Assad’s regime in Syria over the weekend, divisions within the international Palestinian solidarity movement had started to form when news hit that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the pro-Turkey “Syrian National Army” (SNA) had captured Aleppo and other territories. Some argued that this military offensive led by “Al-Qaida and other terrorists” was a Western-imperialist plot against the Syrian regime, in order to weaken the so-called “Axis of Resistance” led by Iran and Hezbollah.

These states, they claimed, were allies of the Palestinians, and undermining them meant weakening the struggle for the liberation of Palestine. And, that the military offensive by HTS and SNA took place only one day after the conclusion of a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, was deemed suspicious.

However, this entire description of the context has many shortcomings, and if anything, it shows a lack of understanding of Syrian and regional dynamics.

The real context

took place at a time when the main allies of the Syrian regime were weakened. The Russian military forces had been focusing on their imperialist war against Ukraine, while Iran and Hezbollah had taken a blow following Israel’s war in Lebanon. This all reflected the overall structural weakness of the Syrian regime militarily, economically and politically, hence why it collapsed like a house of cards.

The Turkish government most likely assisted the military offensive against the regime in one way or another. Certainly, Ankara's initial objective was to improve its position in future negotiations with the Syrian regime, and with Iran and Russia in particular. However, with the fall of the regime it stood to play an even bigger role. Through the territories conquered by the SNA it also sought to weaken the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which are dominated by the armed wing of the Kurdish party PYD (the sister organization of the PKK).

After the SNA the Tal Rifaat and Shahba areas in Northern Aleppo and of the city of Minbej – previously under the governance of the SDF – this led to over 150,000 civilians being displaced and many violations of human rights against Kurds, including assassinations.

In the lead up to Assad’s toppling, HTS had relative autonomy vis-à-vis Turkey. The successful seizure of Aleppo showed its evolution into a more disciplined and structured organization that has brought together a number of military groups under its wing over the years. Whilst it was considered a terrorist , since its rupture with al-Qaeda in 2016, it was attempting to project a more moderate image as a rational and responsible actor.

However, it remains an authoritarian organization with an Islamic fundamentalist ideological orientation and foreign fighters within its ranks. Many took place in Idlib denouncing HTS’ rule and its violations of political freedoms and human rights. Both SNA and HTS are threats for a democratic Syria.

Neither the US nor Israel had a hand in these events, in fact, they were worried about the events leading up to now. Israeli officials, for example, declared that the ‘collapse of the Assad regime would likely create chaos in which military threats against Israel would develop.’ Moreover, since 2011, Israel has never really been in favour of the Syrian regime being overthrown.

In July 2018 Netanyahu had no objection to Assad taking back control of the country and stabilising his power. He said Israel would only act against perceived threats, such as Iran and Hezbollah’s forces/influence, explaining, “We haven’t had a problem with the Assad regime, for 40 years not a single bullet was fired on the Golan Heights”.

As this stable actor is no more, Israel took matters into its own hands. Indeed in the days following the fall of the Syrian regime, the Israeli occupation army invaded the Syrian part of Mount Hermon, in the Golan Heights. It sought to prevent the rebels from seizing the area, and on anti-aircraft batteries, military airfields, weapons production sites, combat aircraft and missiles. Missile vessels struck the Syrian naval facilities of Al-Bayda port and Latakia port where 15 Syrian naval vessels were docked.

These raids aim to destroy Syria's military capabilities to prevent them being used against Israel. It is also seeding the message that the Israeli occupation army can cause political instability at any time, should the future government adopt a hostile position that doesn’t serve Israel’s interests.

“Axis of Resistance” versus struggle from below

Alongside ignoring the agency of local Syrian actors, the main issue with the argument promoted by the supporters of the so-called “Axis of Resistance” within the Palestinian solidarity movement, is that it suggests liberation of Palestine will come from above. These states, despite their reactionary and authoritarian nature, and neoliberal economic orientation, will somehow deliver freedom.

This ignores that their foreign policies are shaped by the need to protect their own political interests, and that regional authoritarian states have repeatedly betrayed and repressed the Palestinians.

While rhetorically supporting the Palestinian cause and funding Hamas, since 7 October 2023, Iran has sought, to improve its standing in the region in order to be in the best position for future negotiations with the US. It is therefore keen to avoid any direct war with Israel. Its main geopolitical objective in relation to the Palestinians is therefore to use them as leverage.

Similarly, Iran’s passivity towards Israel’s attacks on Lebanon – which was particularly visible following the assassination of key Hezbollah cadres – has demonstrated its first priority is protecting its own geopolitical interests. Not to mention, Iran didn’t hesitate to in the past when their interests did not match: like when uprisings erupted in Syria in 2011 and the Palestinian movement refused to support the Assad regime’s murderous repression of protesters.

Similarly, the Syrian regime didn’t respond to Israel’s war on Gaza, despite also facing attacks. Indeed, it has been avoiding any direct confrontation with Israel since 1974.

The regime has actually , and killed many since 2011. It also destroyed Yarmouk camp in Damascus which was home to a considerable Palestinian refugee population.

In the last few days, 630 Palestinian political prisoners were released from Sednaya prison alone.

The regime also attacked the Palestinian national movement.

Furthermore, in 1976 to support far-right political parties in Lebanon. It also carried out military operations against Palestinian refugee camps in Beirut in 1985 and 1986. In 1990 approximately 2,500 Palestinian political prisoners were detained in Syrian prisons.

Supporters of the “Axis of resistance” are also ignoring or refusing to accept the by Hamas that congratulates the Syrian people for achieving their “aspirations for freedom and justice” after toppling Bashar al-Assad.

Liberation for all

The list of historical crimes against Palestinians by the Assad regime do not, of course, undermine the fact that US imperialism remains exceptionally destructive and deadly. However, supporting authoritarian and despotic regimes undermines the objective liberating of Palestine. It is accepting that oppression will continue in other parts of the region in the name of freeing one people, which is neither what the Palestinian struggle calls for, nor could it actually deliver the goal.

What happens in the region is ultimately directly linked to the future of Palestine.

A considerable majority of the MENA region’s popular classes identify with the Palestinian struggle and see it as linked to their own local battles for democracy and equality. It is important that those organising in solidarity with Palestine understand that Palestinian and regional popular classes are central social forces capable of creating the conditions required to achieve liberation, with their support.

When Palestinians fight, this triggers a regional liberation movement, and the regional movement in turn fuels that of occupied Palestine.

Far-right minister Avigdor Lieberman recognised the danger that popular uprisings in the MENA posed to Israel back in 2011, when he said the Egyptian revolution that toppled Hosni Mubarak was a greater threat to Israel than Iran.

This is not to deny the right of resistance of Palestinians and Lebanese against Israel, but to explain that the united revolt of popular classes has the power to transform the entire region, topple authoritarian regimes and expel the US and other imperialist powers.

The main task of the international solidarity movement for Palestine, particularly in the West, is to denounce the complicit role of our ruling classes in supporting the racist settler-colonial apartheid state of Israel. We must pressure them to break off any political, economic, and military relations with Tel Aviv. This is the only way that Israel weakened, and in turn the path to the liberation of Palestine and the region more widely, can be paved.

As a Syrian revolutionary wrote from the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights in the summer of 2014: “freedom—a common destiny for Gaza, Yarmouk and the Golan.” This slogan holds out the hope of regional revolutionary transformation, the only realistic strategy for liberation.

Joseph Daher teaches at the University of Lausanne, Switzerland, and the University of Ghent, Belgium. He is the author of Syria after the Uprisings, The Political Economy of State Resilience ; Hezbollah: the Political Economy of Lebanon’s Party of God; Marxism and Palestine.

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