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OPEC oil cuts: Good for Trump, a heavy cost to the Ukrainian people
As the missiles rained down on the citizens of Kyiv, former how this was just âthe first episodeâ, a portent of what is to come.
The Kremlin is going to try and break civilian morale in Ukraine with attacks on power grids and dams that deprive the population of electricity and running water during the cold winter ahead.
Step forward General Sergei Surovikin with a based on his use of cluster munitions, barrel bombs and even chemical weapons in Syria. His appointment is a sign that Vladimir Putin wants results no matter the cost.
But in a at the Royal United Services Institute on Tuesday, the head of Britainâs GCHQ intelligence agency, claimed Russiaâs forces are tired and running out of ammunition.
''The question for them remains, however, whether siding with Russia in the name of protective oil market management is acceptable when the Kremlin has invaded its neighbour and is threatening nuclear war if it doesnât get its way.''
Sir Jeremy Fleming also described the costs to Moscow of the war against Kyiv as âstaggeringâ.
So whatâs it to be? A new general whoâs going to bomb Ukraine back to the Dark Ages, or a ragtag army whose soldiers refuse to carry out orders, sabotage their own equipment and accidentally shoot down their own aircraft?
The answer, as always seems the case with the ebb and flow of this conflict, is a bit of both. Yes, things havenât being going Putinâs way, but the Russian Bear is far from done yet.
In the light of this, consider to cut crude oil production and thereby drive up fuel prices â despite pleas from the West not to do so.
For by going down this path what Mohammed bin Salman and his friends at the (OPEC+) have done is to side with Putin and give a threefold kick in the teeth to those wishing to halt the brutal Russian assault and with it the suffering of the Ukrainian people.
Firstly, by inflating the price of oil, they are as a major exporter of oil and gas, enabling the Kremlin to rain more missiles down on innocent civilians for longer and with more devastating effect.
How is that a defendable position? It isnât, just naked self-interest.
Secondly, any rise in the cost of oil will that has pushed up interest rates around the world, stunting economic growth.
Again, how is that helping anyone at a time of global financial crisis? It isnât, except the oil producing countries.
Thirdly, a rise in oil prices will at next monthâs mid-term elections and could mean the White House loses control of the Senate or House of Representatives, or both, causing political gridlock in Washington.
Now, if youâre a Republican or a fan of then you might welcome Bidenâs poll rating going through the floor because gas prices have gone through the roof. But weâve still got two years to go until the next presidential election and if the US is weak that is only going to strengthen and embolden Putin during that time.
Maybe that is MBSâ ploy after all. To help Trump get re-elected so he has is old friend back in the Oval Office covering his back.
But at what cost to the Ukrainian people?
As a result of last weekâs OPEC+ decision, Biden said on Tuesday that the US will be re-evaluating its relationship with Saudi Arabia, a long-term ally.
âIâm not going to get into what Iâd consider and what I have in mind,â he . âBut there will be consequences.â
The Saudi slap in the face for Biden came less than three months after the , asking the countryâs leaders to increase oil production to counter the impact of the war in Ukraine.
Instead, OPEC+ did the opposite and announced that oil production would be cut by two million barrels a day by the start of November.
There is a feeling of exasperation in Washington at the Saudi snub.
âI just donât know what the point of the current alliance is, if we have to work so hard to get the Saudiâs to do the right thing,â Senator Chris Murphy.
Congressman Ro Khanna believes the US should cut off arms sales to the desert kingdom.
âWe give Saudi Arabia 70% of their weapons,â on Twitter. âFor them to drive up energy prices for the American people is outrageous. Itâs simple. If the Saudi-led OPEC+ doesnât reverse their decision, the US should stop sending them weaponsâ.
Such a move could bring relief to war-ravaged Yemen which has been bombed by a Saudi-led coalition since 2015 with planes using weapons from US arms deals worth $64.1 billion.
There is also a to pass legislation in Washington that could open up OPEC+ members to antitrust lawsuits.
The , if passed, would give the US attorney general the option to sue the oil cartel or its members, such as Saudi Arabia, in the federal court. How taking legal action against a foreign state works in practice remains to be seen but it is an indication of the strength of feeling against Riyadh which is building.
âFor years we have looked the other way as Saudi Arabia has chopped up journalists, has engaged in massive political repression, for one reason,â Sen. Murphy. âWe wanted to know that when the chips were down, when there was a global crisis, that the Saudis would choose us instead of Russia. Well, they didnât. They chose Russiaâ.
MBS must crave the halcyon days of President Trump when the White House turned a blind eye to the Saudi murder of The Washington Post journalist in order to safeguard the arms deals and protect jobs at home.
There is no love lost between the crown prince and Biden, who called Saudi Arabia a âpariahâ on the campaign trail. Now that MBS has given Biden cause - by pursuing a policy detrimental to the American economy - itâs going to be fascinating watching how this unravels.
would only say the US is âreviewing a number of responsesâ and the White House was âconsulting closely with Congressâ, implying there might be some action on the NOPEC front.
Meanwhile, the and their friends are about the âhystericalâ reaction by the US, insisting that the actions of OPEC+ were intended to encourage long-term investment in oil production.
The question for them remains, however, whether siding with Russia in the name of protective oil market management is acceptable when the Kremlin has invaded its neighbour and is threatening nuclear war if it doesnât get its way.
I know what Alla Yermachenko would say after hearing her parents had been in one the buildings destroyed in Zaporizhzhia during this weekâs missile attacks.
âThereâs very little hope that theyâre alive,â . âWhy are they doing this to us? What are they trying to prove? Killing old people. Why? For what? May our tears drop not on the ground but on the chest of those who launched that missileâ.
And those who give them succour.
Anthony Harwood is a former foreign editor of the Daily Mail.Ìę
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