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The 2024 general election in India, spanning six weeks from April 19 to June 1, is poised to be the largest in history. Promising a continuation of his firebrand Hindu nationalism, Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks a third consecutive term in office, while opposition parties try, seemingly in vain, to warn of the existential threat that Hindutva rule has on the democratic and secular character of the country.Ìý

Unlike the previous high-turnout elections of 2014 and 2019, where Modi was first the anti-establishment challenger and then able to rouse anti-Pakistan sentiment after the , this time the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) haven't been able to whip the Indian electorate into a similar frenzy — but not for lack of trying.Ìý

In recent weeks, Narendra Modi has returned to the traditional BJP playbook of stoking tensions with India's Muslim minority to increase turnout. In , Modi called Muslims "infiltrators", "looters", and "those who have more children". The infamous conspiracy has also made its way back into election speeches and media headlines.

"Under Modi's rule, India's democracy has already transformed into an electoral autocracy. The Modi government has stifled freedom of speech and expression, especially for those who criticise the government or its policies"

Inside Modi's mob rule

Although Modi is widely expected to win this election, key issues remain, including Modi's economic policies, welfare initiatives, and allegations of discrimination against minority groups. Modi's government touts India's global stature and economic growth. In contrast, the opposition coalition — led by Rahul Gahdi's Congress PartyÌý— highlights persistent unemployment and pledges to halt India's slide into majoritarian autocracy.

During Modi's 10-year rule, India has shifted towards majoritarianism, undermining democracy and creating serious insecurity for minorities. The BJP government, under Modi's leadership, promotes a Hindu nationalist agenda, prioritising the interests of the Hindu majority over those of religious minorities.Ìý

Modi's divisive political rhetoric, both and after becoming Prime Minister in 2014, has often targeted Muslims. Serious and well-founded concerns about attacks on freedom of speech have arisen as the government curbs dissent and stifles voices critical of its policies. Instances of harassment and legal action against journalists, activists, and academics have raised questions about the state of democracy in India.Ìý

Communal violence targeting minority communities, particularly Muslims, has becomeÌýa serious issue. The Modi government has not adequately prevented or addressed such incidents. In some cases, government officials and BJP politicians have incited or supported violence against minorities, with Minister of Home Affairs and Modi's right-hand man Amit Shah and Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh repeat offenders.Ìý

Social polarisation along religious lines has intensified, with divisive rhetoric and policies contributing to an atmosphere of insecurity and mistrust. Muslims in India often face systemic discrimination in education, employment, and housing.

Under Modi's rule, hate crimes and religiously motivated violenceÌý— including lynchingsÌý—have increased significantly, a consequence of growing communitarianism.Ìý

Divisive rhetoric and identity politics for electoral gain have contributed to an environment where minorities are demonised and scapegoated, leading to increased tensions and violence. Moreover, the normalisation of hate speech and rampant disinformation, both online and offline, plays a significant role in perpetuating violence against Muslims.

How Modi is changing India's past, present, and future

Modi's enthusiastic support for the construction of the Ram Temple at the disputed site of the Babri Masjid also raises serious questions about his commitment to upholding the rule of law and respecting the independence of the judiciary.

The Supreme Court of India's verdict in November 2018, which awarded the disputed land to Hindu parties to construct the temple, was seen as a validation of the Hindu nationalist agenda rather than a decision based solely on legal principles and evidence.Ìý

The abrogation of Article 370 by the Modi regime in 2019, which granted special autonomy to the Muslim-majority province of Jammu and Kashmir, and the subsequent bifurcation of the state into two union territories, were carried out without consulting the people of Kashmir or their elected representatives.Ìý

Since the implementation of Modi's Kashmir policy, there have been widespread reports of human rights violations in the region, including allegations of arbitrary detentions, torture, extrajudicial killings, and restrictions on freedom of movement and expression. The heavy deployment of security forces and the imposition of internet and communication blackouts have further exacerbated the situation, leading to a climate of fear and intimidation among the local Muslim population.

"With nearly all of these constitutional safeguards and institutions faltering, if Modi is reelected, there is no doubt that India's 200 million Muslims will be relegated to second-class citizenship"

Modi government’s policies such as the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) have been seen as discriminatory against Muslims and other minority groups.

By selectively granting citizenship based on religious identity, the CAA undermines the secular principles enshrined in the Indian Constitution, which guarantees equality before the law regardless of religion.

The most contentious aspect of the CAA is its exclusion of Muslim migrants from the countries covered by the legislation, which is seen as discriminatory and Islamophobic, effectively denying citizenship to persecuted Muslims.

The combination of the CAA, the NRC, and the proposed nationwide implementation of the National Population Register (NPR) raises concerns about the potential for rendering millions of people stateless, particularly Muslims who may not be able to provide sufficient documentation to prove their citizenship. This could lead to a massive humanitarian crisis and violations of human rights.

Lok Sabha 2024: From democracy to autocracy

Given this background, the upcoming 2024 election in India holds significant implications, especially for the country's minority communities, particularly the Muslim population.

Even after being Prime Minister for 10 years, Modi continues to use Islamophobic language during this election campaign. His speeches and election campaigns continue to appeal to Hindu nationalist sentiments, promoting an "us versus them" narrative that exacerbates communal tensions and polarises society along religious lines.

Under Modi's rule, India's democracy has already transformed into an electoral autocracy. The Modi government has stifled freedom of speech and expression, especially for those who criticise the government or its policies.

Democratic institutions in India, such as the judiciary, election commission, and law enforcement agencies, have been weakened by political interference and pressure from the ruling party, failing miserably to uphold the principles of justice and equality.

With nearly all of these constitutional safeguards and institutions faltering, if Modi is reelected, there is no doubt that India's 200 million Muslims will be relegated to second-class citizenship. India may constitutionally become a Hindu country, abandoning its secular character, and the world may witness a humanitarian disaster of a magnitude never before seen.

Ashok Swain is a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, Sweden

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