Last week Syrian rebels launched an unprecedented offensive in northwest Syria, capturing the city of Aleppo in three days and seemingly sweeping aside forces loyal to Bashar al-Assad.
After 13 years of civil war, many thought the current lines in Syria represented a stalemate, with Assad retaining control of most of the country, with the exception of rebel-held Idlib and areas of the northwest and northeast controlled by the US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
However, the rebels have shown themselves capable of making major rapid gains, while Assad has shown that his brutal rule over Syria – propped up by Iran and Russia – is far from guaranteed.
looks at how regional forces and forces with significant interests in the region are reacting to the completely new regional dynamic the rebel offensive has created.
Iran
Iran is the chief sponsor of the Assad regime and has invested the most money and resources in keeping Bashar al-Assad in power.
Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi visited Damascus on Sunday, the day after the rebels captured Aleppo.
"I am going to Damascus to convey the message of the Islamic Republic to the Syrian government," Araghchi said, emphasising Tehran will "firmly support the Syrian government and army," the IRNA state news agency reported.
In a joint press conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Monday, Araghchi said it was crucial "to protect the achievements of the Astana process" to end Syria's civil war, referring to talks between Ankara, Moscow and Tehran, and pledged to convene fresh ministerial talks in the Kazakh capital "soon".
"Syria must not become a centre for terrorist groups," warned Araghchi in reference to the rebel factions that staged last week's attack.
It was also reported on Monday that 200-300 Iran-aligned Iraqi fighters entered Syria from Iraq to fight for Assad, a clear indication that Iran is gearing up to coordinate Assad’s inevitable ground counteroffensive.
Domestically, Iran has sought to blame the US and Israel for the Syrian rebel offensive.
“The new movements of Takfiri-terrorist groups are part of the plot of the US and the illegitimate Zionist regime,” Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, said in a post on his X account on Friday.
“After defeating the Zionist regime, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Axis of Resistance will support the Syrian government and people against the new conspiracy like in the past,” he continued.
Turkey
Turkey, which backs the rebel grouping known as the Syrian National Army, rejected on Monday any suggestion that "foreign interference" was behind the offensive launched by jihadists in the country's north.
"It would be a mistake at this time to try to explain the events in Syria by any foreign interference," Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said at the joint press conference in Ankara with his Iranian counterpart Araghchi.
His comments took aim at those claiming Turkey was somehow behind the rebel offensive, which is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group not known to be funded by Turkey and that it officially classifies as a “terrorist organisation”.
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday called for an end to "instability" in Syria and an agreement to stop the civil war.
"Our greatest wish is for Syria's territorial integrity and national unity to be preserved, and for the instability that has been going on for 13 years to end with consensus in line with the legitimate demands of the Syrian people," he said.
"For a long time, we have been drawing attention to the possibility that the spiral of violence in the Middle East could also affect Syria. Recent events have confirmed that Turkey was right," he said.
Despite most of the Turkish-backed rebels not taking part in the current offensive, Turkey has mobilised the SNA to stop the SDF, which is led by the Syrian wing of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), from seizing more territory due to the power vacuum created due to the rebel assault.
Gulf Cooperation Council
The 45th Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which is the group that contains all of the Gulf Arab countries, has affirmed its "consistent stance" on preserving the unity of Syria's territory and rejected regional interference in its internal affairs.
In its final communique released on Sunday, the summit expressed support for UN efforts to achieve a political solution in Syria, in line with Security Council Resolution 2254 and other relevant resolutions relating to a peace process.
Individually speaking, it emerged on Monday that the UAE had been lobbying the US to drop sanctions on the Assad regime in return for him distancing himself from Iran.
This occurred before the current rebel offensive, but the UAE, along with Saudi Arabia, has been leading the way in trying to rehabilitate and renormalise Assad within the region and with the West.
The UAE’s attempt to get the US to drop sanctions on Assad in return for it breaking its ties with Iran is a position designed to help Israel in its war on Gaza and harm the Syrian opposition.
Israel
Israel appears to be caught in a dilemma.
On the one hand, Israel see the rebel offensive as representing an opportunity for Assad, a key member of the “Axis of Resistance”, to be toppled, while on the other, it is worried about Iran sending more forces into Syria and close to its border, according to Haaretz.
Tel Aviv is also worried about who or what might replace Assad, with any opposition force likely to be hostile to it.
US
In line with Joe Biden’s policy of complete disengagement with any force in Syria other than the SDF, it has not backed the Syrian rebel offensive.
In a joint statement late on Sunday, the US, the UK, France and Germany urged the protection of civilians and infrastructure "to prevent further displacement and disruption of humanitarian access."
"The current escalation only underscores the urgent need for a Syrian-led political solution to the conflict," in line with UN Security Council Resolution 2254, the statement added.
The 2015 resolution calls for peace talks between the Syrian government and opposition forces.
The US considers the main rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to be a “terrorist organisation”, despite its disavowal of al-Qaeda and it waging war on ISIS.
Russia
Russia’s first response to the rebel offensive was to kill Syrian civilians.
At least 25 people, including children, were killed in northwestern Syria by air strikes carried out by the Assad regime and Russia, the White Helmets said early on Monday.
Russian and Syrian jets struck the rebel-held city of Idlib in northern Syria on Sunday.
Russia’s intervention in Syria in 2015 is seen as being the pivotal moment in turning the Syrian civil war in Assad’s favour.
Since then, it has waged a brutal air war on rebel-held areas of Syria, with it often deliberately targeting civilians.
Russia has said that it remains entirely committed to propping up Assad, but many wonder if its response to the offensive might be weakened due to its war on Ukraine.
The presidents of Russia and Iran on Monday pledged "unconditional support" to Syrian leader Bashar-al Assad amid a shock rebel offensive in the country's northwest, the Kremlin said.
In a phone call between Vladimir Putin and Masoud Pezeshkian, the pair "expressed unconditional support for the actions of Syria's legitimate authorities to restore constitutional order and territorial sovereignty," the Kremlin said in a statement.