The United States and the United Kingdom are exploring ways to engage with the Syrian Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) following its leading role in the ouster of former dictator Bashar al-Assad.
While UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said it was "far too early" to consider removing HTS from the UK’s list of proscribed terrorist organisations, there has been increased discussion about the group's actions and future role in post-Assad Syria.
American terrorism analyst Michael S. Smith II said that while HTS was still designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) by the US, removing this designation was likely to have only a limited effect on future policy towards Syria.
"It is very unlikely that removing these designations will have a significant impact on how [Donald] Trump deals with Syria. The UN is already finding ways to work around its designation of HTS," Smith told °®Âþµº.
"Trump brokered the deal with the Afghan Taliban that allowed various individuals treated as most-wanted terrorists by the US to play leadership roles in the governance of Afghanistan
"In short, Trump’s Syria policy will probably be surmised as, 'Do nothing other than keep an eye on things to know where to conduct strikes if needed.'"
Smith has also highlighted recent moves by the UN to ensure financial sanctions on HTS do not obstruct humanitarian work in Syria, saying these measures were more consequential than the US or UK terror designations of the Syrian group.
UK position: No clear decision
Speaking during a trip to Saudi Arabia, Starmer remained cautious as he said: “We have all seen in other parts of history where we think there is a turning point—it turns out not necessarily to be the better future that we hope for. We've got to make sure this is different."
Meanwhile, cabinet minister Pat McFadden indicated that the UK might consider removing HTS from the terror list.
Foreign Secretary David Lammy added that the country would judge HTS by its actions, stating that London would "monitor closely how they and other parties to this conflict treat all civilians in areas they control".
HTS was first proscribed as a terrorist organisation in 2017 for its ties to al-Qaeda. This classification prohibits any communication with the group under the UK’s Terrorism Act 2000.
US debate: Sanctions and security
The group's designation as a terrorist organisation under US law imposes financial sanctions and criminal penalties on its supporters. Any decision to revoke this designation would require the Secretary of State’s approval— a move fraught with political and national security implications.
Smith noted that despite HTS's rebranding and distancing from al-Qaeda, its past ties to the group and its leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa's previous role in the global jihadist movement remain significant obstacles to delisting.
"Ultimately, I cannot imagine that Trump will view it as beneficial for the designations of HTS and its founding leader to be cancelled. The backlash caused by non-expert commentators at Fox News and the like would be too great," he added.
HTS has in the past few years emerged as the dominant force in rebel-held northwestern Syria. With its leading role in the ouster of Assad, it has now extended this to most of the rest of the country.
Despite its role in opposition politics and attempts to moderate its image, the group’s previous connections to al-Qaeda continue to define its international reputation.
The UN Monitoring Team on terrorism described HTS as the "predominant terrorist organisation active in northern Syria" as recently as mid-2024.
However, in a significant shift, the UN has adjusted its approach to ensure sanctions against HTS do not obstruct humanitarian operations.
The question of delisting HTS from terror designations remains deeply contentious in the UK and the US.
For now, leaders on both sides of the Atlantic appear reluctant to make definitive moves, instead opting to monitor the group’s actions and its evolving role in Syria’s post-Assad landscape.