Israel is expected to inform the US that it will not withdraw from southern Lebanon at the end of the 60-day period stipulated in last year’s ceasefire deal.
Tel Aviv is likely to use the pretext that "the Lebanese army is not meeting the terms of the agreement, while Hezbollah is trying to reorganise its ranks in the region," Israeli public broadcaster Kan cited a source as saying.
"Under the ceasefire agreement, the Lebanese army is supposed to deploy in the region, but it is doing so at a very slow pace," claimed Kan, adding that the Lebanese army was not dismantling Hezbollah targets as stipulated in the deal.
Israel is also expected to convey a message to the US that it will not allow residents of Lebanese border villages to return to their homes, the source told Kan. Since the war ended, Israel has warned residents of these border communities against returning as long as its military is present there.
A US-brokered ceasefire deal ended the cross-border fighting between the Iran-backed Hezbollah group and Israel, which erupted in October 2023.
Israel dramatically escalated the conflict into a full-scale war in September 2024.
Thousands of Lebanese were killed in Israeli strikes, which destroyed large parts of southern Lebanon, Beirut’s southern suburbs, and the Beqaa region. Over a million were also forced to flee their homes.
Under the deal which went into effect on 27 November, Israel has 60 days to gradually pull out its forces from southern Lebanon and Hezbollah must move its fighters north of the Litani River, far from the frontier.
The Lebanese Armed Forces, accompanied by UN peacekeepers, must then deploy across southern Lebanon and dismantle what remains of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, making sure there are no arms outside state authority.
But there remain doubts in Lebanon that the state will be able to force Hezbollah to give up its arms, or if the Shia group is willing to concede further, despite facing very heavy losses in the war.
Fears of reignition
Still reeling from the aftermath of the violence, many in Lebanon and particularly those living in affected areas are worried about the war reigniting at the end of the 60-day deadline, expected later this month.
Hezbollah may feel obliged to respond if Israel continues to clear the border area as part of its scorched earth strategy.
More than 350 Israeli violations have been registered since the ceasefire went into effect.
Israel claims it is targeting Hezbollah personnel, weapon storages, rocket launchers and other installations belonging to the group, vowing it will not allow its archenemy to rebuild under any circumstances.
On Thursday night, the Israeli military launched airstrikes deep in southern Lebanon for the first time since 27 November, claiming that it struck Hezbollah rocket launchers and that it had informed the Lebanese army of its intention to bomb the area beforehand.
A US-led multinational committee tasked with overseeing the ceasefire agreement has done very little to put a stop to these violations. The Lebanese government has previously called on the committee to guarantee that Israel respects the deal and leaves south Lebanon by the end of January.
US Major General Jasper Jeffers who leads the committee, which includes a French, Israeli, Lebanese and UN general, visited the southern border town of Khiam on Friday which witnessed very heavy battles between Hezbollah fighters and Israel during the war.
It is one of the few towns that Israeli soldiers have left and handed over to the Lebanese army.
In Lebanon, some people have characterised the ceasefire deal as a "surrender" by the state and Hezbollah, saying that they knew that Israel would not respect its obligations and try to prolong its withdrawal on various pretexts.