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Iran's leadership split on how to handle new Donald Trump era

Iran's leadership split on how to handle a return to Donald Trump era
MENA
4 min read
02 December, 2024
Tehran grapples with tough choices between negotiation or resistance as Trump returns to the White House and pressure increases on Iran's regional allies.
A protester holds a poster depicting former U.S. President Donald Trump, shown in a defiant pose, during the rally in Tehran, Iran, on 3 November 2024. [Getty]

The return of Donald Trump to power in the United States has had a significant impact on Iran's foreign policy, making the divide between its two main political factions more visible: conservatives are pushing for a tougher stance, while moderates, led by President Masoud Pezeshkian, are calling for de-escalation.

Last week, the gap between these factions widened further with Iran's announcement of its readiness to resume nuclear negotiations with European powers.

The government presented this move as a major step toward reducing tensions with Western powers and potentially lifting the sanctions imposed by the US and Europe. Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and groups close to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's office launched a campaign warning against talks with "the West".

Since any major foreign policy decision, especially on the nuclear issue, requires the Supreme Leader's approval, both factions are using their influence to sway his stance.

Addressing the resumed talks, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani referred to the Supreme Leader, , "As the Supreme Leader has emphasised many times, even if it is necessary to lift these sanctions an hour earlier, our officials will take action and work to resolve the conflicts."

While hardliners criticised the Pezeshkian administration for negotiating with Germany, the UK, and France, some politicians and analysts have called for greater flexibility, arguing that Tehran should engage directly with Washington during Trump's presidency.

Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the former head of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee in parliament, Iran should avoid relying on intermediaries.

"Iran must recognise that for the next four years, the US is its most important negotiating side. If Iran doesn't talk directly to America, even Netanyahu will achieve his goals by using the Iran issue," he said.

"Iran should cut out intermediaries. Recent experience shows that Iran has no real strategic allies and must focus on reducing the number of its enemies," he added.

Abdolreza Farajirad, a geopolitics professor and former ambassador to Norway and Hungary, agreed, pointing out Trump's preference for one-on-one talks rather than group negotiations.

"Trump has shown he doesn't trust international working groups. He prefers direct bilateral talks to reach an agreement," Farajirad .

He added that this approach could help ease sanctions imposed during Trump's first term.

"Iran's priority is to remove sanctions, many of which stem from Trump's 'Maximum Pressure' campaign. This makes direct talks between Tehran and Washington essential," he said.

Farajirad also noted that Trump would likely want quick results. "Unlike Biden, Trump seeks a deal he can call his own, one that serves his interests," he stressed.

On the other side, hardliners are demanding a stronger response to Israel and the US and preparing for military action.

The daily, linked to the IRGC, published several articles last week advocating for war readiness as Trump's return to the White House approaches. One article quoted Imam Ali, the first Imam of Shia Islam, saying, "If you want peace, prepare for war."

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former IRGC commander, also criticised the negotiations, highlighting the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018.

"Didn't they negotiate with America? Wasn't it direct, and part of the JCPOA framework? What happened to America's honesty? Trump tore up the deal and walked away. We must not let this happen again," Ghalibaf .

Other hardliners criticised the talks with Europe, pointing to their inaction after the US withdrew from the deal. Back then, Iran tried to maintain ties with European countries under the JCPOA, but US sanctions left them unable to provide meaningful relief. In response, Iran gradually increased its uranium enrichment.

The daily, whose editor-in-chief is appointed by the Iranian Supreme Leader, echoed these concerns in its coverage of Friday's talks with the three European countries.

"Europe has no grounds to make demands of Iran. It owes Iran for the failures and impunity following America's withdrawal from the JCPOA," the daily wrote.

"Even the most optimistic voices in Iran’s foreign policy circles have criticised Europe's hostile and uncommitted approach. Now is the time for Iran to demand what it is owed from Europe," the piece concluded.

MENA
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