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For ten years, the population of Idlib province has .Ìý

As opposition areas across Syria fell in quick succession to , the families of rebel fighters or civilians fearing the security forces fled to Idlib where they now make up the majority of the 1.5 million living in Northwest Syria's camps.Ìý

High birth rates have added to the population growth, which has seen the province’s pre-war population of around 1.5 million more than double in ten-years. Ìý

"[A Russian veto] would essentially grant the regime power over the lives and deaths of millions of people they have long tried to subjugate"

On Saturday, the only border crossing into the opposition enclave could be shutÌýif Russia and China veto an extension of Bab Al-Hawa mandate. It would .

Russia, , argues that aid can still reach Idlib and Aleppo via Damascus.Ìý

The idea of the Syrian regime becoming the gatekeeper of has been rejected by many NGOs, wary of Damascus’ notorious reputation for corruption, its politicisation of aid, and previous starvation sieges on rebel territories.

Doing so would essentially grant the. As if to demonstrate this, the regime and Russia have stepped up attacks on Idlib province in recent weeks, killing dozens of civilians.Ìý

Around three-in-four people in Northwest Syria rely on UN aid and around 85 percent of these supplies come via Bab Al-Hawa. – including Covid-19 - more children out of school, and inevitably starvation, probably on a scale unseen in the war.Ìý

Save the Children has worked with its partners to provide aid to more than 2 million people in and Idlib provinces, offering vital child protection, education health, sanitation, and nutrition services.Ìý

"Aid agencies say that if Bab Al-Hawa is shut, it would be impossible to provide Syrians in the northwest with the level of support they need to survive"

Sonia Khush, Save the Children’s Syria Response Director, of children who rely on agencies for food, school, and medicine.Ìý

"Some of these children have been displaced several times already - some as many as ten times. And now, . Child labour is widespread and child marriage is all too common,"ÌýKhush told °®Âþµº in an email.Ìý

"The dire economic situation is causing profound stress and desperation. Save the Children’s partners have documented newborn infants being abandoned on roadsides, in hospitals and even in a garbage can."

If the border crossing is not permitted by the UN to operate for another year, . Health and Covid-19 services in Aleppo and Idlib provinces will also be essentially stalled. Ìý

"Without the cross-border resolution being renewed for 12 months, , denied access to sufficient food to help them to grow up healthy, and denied the chance to go to school,"ÌýKhush said.Ìý

"They are more likely instead to be forced to work or marry early, to go hungry or to die from entirely preventable diseases."

Aid agencies say that if Bab Al-Hawa is shut, .Ìý

The WFP, for example, provides food aid to around 1.4 million people in Northwest Syria via the border crossing. If Bab Al-Hawa is sealed then food supplies could run out by September and leave 1 million people with no access to food, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) has warned.Ìý

"For us as the IRC, it is our health programming that will be impacted the most if the UN is no longer authorised to deliver aid into Northwest Syria, as we would face challenges in procuring critical medicines,"ÌýSuad Jarbawi, regional vice president for the IRC told °®Âþµº.Ìý

"Additionally, many of our Syrian partner organisations will be seriously affected, as they receive a substantial amount of funding and support from the UN. One of them estimates that , and this will have a severe impact on people living in the region who rely on the health care that we and other NGOs provide."Ìý

When the cross-border mechanism was set-up by the UN in 2014, 10 million people relied on humanitarian aid. Since then, this figure has increased by 30 percent and by 20 percent over the past year, Jarbawi said, in part due to difficulties in reaching non-regime areas through a "principled, timely, sustainable and effective manner".Ìý

Reaching opposition areas will be infinitely more difficult for aid agencies if the Bab Al-Hawa border crossing is closed.Ìý

"Lessons can be learned from the detrimental impact that the loss of the Al-Yarubiyah crossing point (to Kurdish-held areas) has had on people in the northeast. Eighteen months since it was removed from the resolution, cross-line assistance is still only able to provide a limited response to meet the needs of only some populations in the northeast,"Ìýsaid Jarbawi.Ìý

"Its effectiveness is hampered by . Ìý

"These issues combined, have meant cross-line access is currently not able to provide timely, predictable, appropriate and effective delivery of aid and the IRC and other NGOs have experienced chronic shortages of essential supplies including medicines and reproductive health kits which previously were able to be delivered by the WHO directly to the northeast."

The issue has , while the UN has voiced alarm about the overall aid shortages for northeast Syria.Ìý

The Russian proposal of sending aid for Northwest Syria via Syrian-regime territories would be impractical, as NGOs based in Damascus are not able to transfer funds to Idlib. This would force agencies , with transfers across conflict lines vulnerable to being diverted by various actors. International donors would also be far less likely to fund projects due to compliance requirements. Ìý

"To date, there has been no cross-line humanitarian delivery from government-controlled to opposition-controlled areas of northwest Syria . There are a number of challenges to the movement of aid, including bureaucratic impediments and insecurity and ongoing conflict in the northwest which make the reality of crossing into Idlib extremely risky and challenging for humanitarian actors,"Ìýsaid Jarbawi.

"Another major challenge is also lack of acceptance of services delivered by actors from Government of Syria controlled areas by local communities in the northwest. These sentiments have been repeatedly shared with NGOs operating in the northwest."

If , then millions in Syria will risk starvation and disease. If the motion passes, then aid agencies will continue to struggle with the already considerable challenges of providing aid to the people of Idlib. While there are few good choices in the war, Russia and China's decisions will have life-changing impact for millions of children.Ìý

Paul McLoughlin is a senior news editor at °®Âþµº.Ìý

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