������

The Israeli army massacred at least 22 people in southern Lebanon on the day its forces were scheduled to withdraw under a ceasefire agreement.��

Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health reported on Sunday that at least 124 others were injured as the Israeli army fired on people attempting to return to their homes.��

The massacre violates a ceasefire agreement reached in November, under which its forces were supposed to completely withdraw from Lebanon at 02:00 GMT on Sunday morning.��

Tel Aviv made it clear that it had no intention of doing so, with forces remaining across a thin strip of villages along the border with Lebanon.��

However, the killings also reflect what many perceive as a ‘built in’ failure of the original ceasefire deal, namely the idea that Hezbollah could completely withdraw to the north of the Litani river and disarm in a mere 60 days, which is the pretext Israel has used to continue its occupation beyond the withdrawal date.��

The massacre, in fact, brings into question the sustainability of the ceasefire agreement in its totality.��

How did it come to this?��

The original ceasefire deal that brought an end to Israel’s brutal assault on Lebanon in November of last year requires Israel to end its occupation of dozens of villages in southern Lebanon within 60 days.��

This would allow for most of the thousands of Lebanese displaced by Israel to return to their towns and villages across the south.��

While Hezbollah has withdrawn from known positions in the south and has not launched any rocket attacks at Israel since the ceasefire was agreed, Israel has continually violated the agreement, including by carrying out deadly airstrikes, destroying Lebanese army and UNIFIL observation posts and carrying out demolitions in the Lebanese villages it occupies, clearly intending to create a buffer zone with northern Israel.��

But on Friday, Israel confirmed it would not withdraw, claiming that Lebanon’s armed forces had not adequately deployed to the south.����

Lebanon’s military laid the blame on Israel, saying on Saturday that “delays in some stages due to the Israeli enemy's procrastination in withdrawing, complicating the army's deployment mission". However, they also urged civilians not to return until Israel had left.��

Israel’s refusal to withdraw meant that thousands of displaced Lebanese would not be able to return to their homes in areas it captured since mid-September.��

However, another factor in this is the major depletion of Hezbollah by Israel and its will to reassert power in the south.����

By using its civilian supporters to peacefully attempt to test and potentially push out the Israeli occupation by returning to their homes regardless, Hezbollah can demonstrate the weakness of the Lebanese Armed Forces and the new President Joseph Aoun in defending the south of the country in the absence of the Shia armed group.��

Several residents informed Lebanese army intelligence of their plans to re-enter their towns on Sunday.

According to Lebanese media reports, residents of the border areas have urged people to prepare for their return and arranged transportation to facilitate it.��

In recent days, Hezbollah's TV station Al Manar appeared to encourage people to return south and, in some places, convoys arrived waving the yellow and green flag of the group.��

This is precisely what played out today, with civilians, many waving Hezbollah flags and carrying pictures of Hassan Nasrallah, the former Secretary-General of the group who was assassinated by Israel last year.��

As civilians approached occupied towns and villages, Israeli forces opened fire, killing at least 22 civilians and one Lebanese soldier.��

What could happen next?��

Despite the horror of the massacre perpetrated by Israel, the move by the Lebanese civilians appears to have worked in some areas, with reports of and footage confirming Israel withdrawing from . The villagers’ actions cleared the way for the Lebanese army to position itself in the cleared areas, though it remains to be seen whether Israel’s withdrawal would be permanent. It is also possible Israel would escalate and collapse the fragile ceasefire, returning to bombing targets in Lebanon.��

According to Lebanese media reports, Israel has left all but a handful of villages in the southeast, though ������ could not independently confirm these claims.��

With more Lebanese civilians to return to their Israeli-occupied towns and villages tomorrow, Israel’s response will be key and could give some indication to its motives moving forward.��

What has been the reaction to today’s events?��

Domestically, while Aoun and the Lebanese army warned the civilians against returning, shows the military accompanying the civilians to towns from which Israel has withdrawn.��

Despite caution in the actions of Aoun, he issued a statement congratulating the “victory” of the returning villagers.��

“This is a day of victory for Lebanon and the Lebanese—a victory for truth, sovereignty, and national unity. While I share in your great joy, I call on you to exercise restraint and place your trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces, which are committed to protecting our sovereignty, ensuring your safety, and facilitating your safe return to your homes and villages.”��

Nabih Berri, the Speaker of Lebanon’s parliament who helped mediate between the US and his ally Hezbollah to strike the ceasefire, called today’s events a “baptism of blood”.��

“The baptism of blood carried out by the people of southern Lebanon today is undeniable proof of Israel’s persistence in violating Lebanon’s sovereignty and its continued breaches of the ceasefire agreement,” the Amal leader said, adding that the massacre of civilians should compel the international sponsors of the ceasefire to force Israel to withdraw from the country.����

Speaking from Ayta al-Shaab, one of the villages where Lebanese civilians successfully returned, Hezbollah spokesman Hassan Fadlallah said “the people have … opened up the way” for the army to “liberate” all of the villages still under Israeli occupation.��

Of the two international sponsors of the ceasefire deal, only France has commented after today’s events.����

French President Emmanuel Macron called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to "withdraw his forces still present in Lebanon", his office said in a readout of a phone call between the two leaders.��

"The President of the Republic stressed to the Prime Minister the importance of ensuring that nothing compromises the efforts of the new Lebanese authorities to restore the authority of the state throughout the territory of their country," the Elysee Palace said.��