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A respite after years of war is a tremendous . It is a break from violence, panic, and bloodshed.

In Yemen, that’s what is happening today. The UN-sponsored ceasefire on 2 April and expired on 2 June. Fortunately, the parties to the conflict agreed to it until August - a small step towards an elusive peaceful solution.

Working to transform this into a lasting silencing of weapons, the UN Special Envoy for Yemen is continuing to lead diplomatic efforts to diminish the between the internationally recognised government and the Houthi movement.

Last week the UN envoy arrived in Sanaa to persuade the Houthi leadership to implement one item of the truce: reopening roads in , a city besieged for seven years.

"The failure or expiry of the latest truce, in line with a continued lack of reconciliation between rivals, could unleash a new cycle of war. Rival parties could even be enticed to resume fighting on an even greater scale than before"

On 9 June the UN envoy Sanaa after meeting the Houthi leadership without briefing the media about the results of his visit.

Indisputably, Hans Grundberg has a , and any positive outcome to his efforts could open a window to peace. Hitting a dead end, however, could ignite the flames of war in Yemen once again.

The failure or expiry of the latest truce, in line with a continued lack of reconciliation between rivals, could unleash a . Rival parties could even be enticed to resume fighting on an even greater scale than before.

The Houthis take pride in their growing military capabilities. A seven-year-old war led by a coalition of many Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, has not defeated or incapacitated them. Now they feel they are powerful.

On the other hand, the Yemeni government and allied forces see their unity under a in Aden as a decisive step that can bring them victory against the Houthi group should the war resume. Given these calculations, the situation remains highly explosive.

Yahia Al-Rizami, the head of the Houthi delegation that participated in the UN-led-Jordan-hosted negotiations, confirmed in a press in Sanaa on June 8 that the failure to reach an agreement on opening roads to Taiz would push the conflict parties toward violence. "Instead of opening roads, we [the conflict parties] will open cemeteries," Rizami said.

At the time of his comments, the Houthis and the Yemeni government had not reached a final agreement on . That is to say, Yemen’s rival factions have their hands on the trigger, and are ready to fire at any moment.

The likelihood of a political solution is still dim, and this is reflected in the thinking and rhetoric of the different warring sides in Yemen. Abdulmalik Al-Houthi, the chief of the Houthi movement, said last week during a virtual to rallies in Taiz that he will continue moving forward until they reach a decisive triumph.

"Our priority at this stage is to confront the aggression given that the military threat [against us] continues and the enemies are preparing for an escalation in the next period."

While the Iran-backed Houthis are prepared for a new war chapter, the Yemeni government is fully aware that a political solution is distant.

Brigadier General Abdu Mujali, the spokesperson of the government-led armed forces, in a recent interview with newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat that Houthi war preparations are in full swing.

"The group has lately deployed enforcements and mobilised fighters and equipment to the front lines. These [moves] explicitly show that the group disdains the truce and rejects peace," Mujali said.

"Blame and accusations made by Yemen's warring sides continue and the armistice has not been sufficient to build trust between them. The truce has given civilians a respite from suffering, but has also given fighters extra time to prepare for a new battle"

In the same vein, Ahmed Arman, the human rights minister in the Yemeni government, said the Houthi group still objects to the UN proposal of opening roads to Taiz amidst continued truce violations. "These signs do not encourage the continuation of the ceasefire," Arman said in an.

Blame and accusations by Yemen's warring sides continue and the armistice has not been sufficient to build trust between them. The truce has given civilians a respite from suffering, but has also given fighters extra time to prepare for a new battle.

"Signals of near comprehensive political solutions in Yemen do not exist. I do not expect to see the Houthi group capitulate to the Yemeni government and accept a solution based on political dialogue,” a Yemeni political researcher in the Houthi-controlled Sanaa told ������.

“The first reason is that the militant group is not militarily weak and is willing to fight for many more years. Second, the group adheres to its dogma, abhorring democracy which enables people to choose their leaders through the ballot box,” they added.

“Houthi leaders believe they have the divine right to rule. Accordingly, any halt to fighting in Yemen should not be seen as a prologue to a permanent cessation of hostilities."

Political observers are not alone in expressing doubt about the impact of the ongoing truce on long-term peace. Mediators, including UN and US envoys for Yemen, have also exhibited .

"This war has not ended. It's a lull. It's a break. It's a truce. We need to continue building," US Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking said in a last week.

Since the 2021 appointment of Grundberg, the fourth UN envoy to Yemen, and Lenderking, the first US envoy to Yemen, extensive diplomatic efforts have been exerted to break the seven-year stalemate.

"As of now, it remains unclear whether recent developments will succeed in achieving lasting peace in the war-torn nation, or whether the current ceasefire will prove to be no more than a temporary intermission in an ongoing conflict"

Significant events, particularly the truce, have materialised over the last three months, and they can be summed up as follows:����

2 April: The UN-sponsored truce. The truce agreement stipulates the cessation of offensive ground, aerial and naval military operations. It also emphasises allowing fuel ships to reach Houthi-controlled ports and the Sanaa International Airport, which was shut down in 2016.

7 April: Former president Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi steps down. He concedes power to an eight-member council called the (PLC). This development is welcomed by the UN, US and other international players. The PLC becomes the new UN-recognised leadership of Yemen.

11 April: UN envoy to Yemen Grundberg in Sanaa for the first time, intending to engage with the Houthi leadership on strengthening the truce and discussing the way forward.

28 April: The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen that it will free 163 Houthi prisoners who fought against the kingdom. The coalition said the move aims to solidify the two-month truce and prepare the atmosphere for dialogue.

1 May: The PLC to Aden from Riyadh. The council is Yemen's new leadership, and its mission is to lead the country and negotiate with the Houthis on a lasting peace agreement.

10 May: The UN envoy to Yemen Grundberg in Aden to meet the PLC, focusing on upholding the ceasefire and reviving peace talks.��

16 May: The first commercial flight since 2016 from the Houthi-held Sanaa International Airport. The airport's operation is one of the truce items the conflict parties agreed to.

25 May: The representatives of the Yemeni government and the Houthi group UN-sponsored negotiations in Amman, Jordan to agree on opening roads in Taiz and other governorates in addition to discussing the possibility of a truce extension.

2 June: The UN envoy announces the warring sides agreed to the truce for two additional months. The extension has been hailed as a glimmer of hope and commended by several countries.

4 June: The second round of negotiations to discuss opening the roads to Taiz, a thorny issue that has not been resolved so far. The truce continues despite reported breaches by the two sides.��

As of now, it remains unclear whether recent developments will succeed in achieving lasting peace in the , or whether the current ceasefire will prove to be no more than a temporary intermission in an ongoing conflict.

The writer is a Yemeni journalist, reporting from Yemen,��whose identity we are protecting for their security.