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Ramallah - On 5 December, Palestinian Authority (PA) forces launched what they referred to as a "security operation" in the Jenin refugee camp under the banner of ‘Protecting the Homeland’.

To date, at least five Palestinians have been killed by PA security forces, including a female journalist who was reportedly shot in the head, a commander in the Jenin Brigades, and a 19-year-old who was shot and killed while riding a motorcycle.

Five PA officers have also been killed in the clashes.

The PA has besieged the entrances and exits of the camp, with residents unable to attend work or school and suffering severe cuts to electricity, water, and sanitation for close to a month.

The assault, which is targeting armed resistance groups, is deeply unpopular among the Palestinian public, with many believing it goes against a core right to resist Israel’s nearly 60-year military occupation.

Describing the fighters as “outlaws,” PA officials say the operation aims to “impose order” and “uphold the rule of law”.

The security forces spokesman, Anwar Rajab, has referred to the fighters as “criminals,” and likened their tactics to the Islamic State (IS), adding that the armed groups go against “Palestinian values and morals”.

On Wednesday, the PA Al Jazeera’s operations in the West Bank for broadcasting “inciting material and reports that were deceiving and stirring strife”, in reference to coverage of its crackdown.

“The PA’s approach to Jenin is completely rejected. It is trying to solve a political issue through force and security means, and it is cooperating with the Israeli occupation,” Hani al-Masri, director general of the Palestinian Center for Policy Research and Strategic Studies (Masarat), told ������.

“Instead, the PA should be negotiating with the resistance on the best strategy forward in this particular phase.”

Ismat Mansour, a Ramallah-based analyst said he believes that the PA’s decision to target armed resistance groups is extremely problematic.

“One may have issues with the resistance in the northern West Bank, but not on the basis of their right to resist occupation. It should be on the basis of how best to channel their efforts and make the maximum use out of them,” he told ������.

“This is an uncalculated operation by the PA, and it is not the time for them to be doing this - when our people are under attack in Gaza and going through extremely difficult living conditions in the occupied West Bank,” Mansour added.

Why now?

Analysts believe the timing of the PA’s campaign in Jenin coincides with a potential end to Israel’s war on Gaza and the leadership vacuum that will ensue amid Hamas’ weakening.

More than 45,500 Palestinians, the majority women and children, have been killed in Gaza by the Israeli army since October 2023, with international rights groups and UN experts saying Israel has committed acts of genocide.

“The main reason this is happening now is because there’s a possibility of a partial prisoner exchange and ceasefire deal as we get closer to [US president-elect] Donald Trump taking office,” said al-Masri, explaining that the PA seeks to stay relevant by engaging with Trump rather than cutting ties with the US administration as it did during Trump’s first term between 2017-2021.

“The PA wants to prepare itself for staying in power in the West Bank after the war is over. Its existence is not threatened by internal opposition, but by the governing class in Israel whose aims to liquidate the PA are stated publicly and acted upon,” he continued.

Another factor he and other analysts mentioned was the overthrow of the regime of Bashar Al-Assad in Syria, with the PA fearing of a similar situation occurring under its watch in the West Bank.

The PA is a 30-year-old administrative body with little to no control over the territories it operates in, which make up only 18 percent of the occupied West Bank, namely Palestinian city centres. Even there, the Israeli occupation army has ultimate control and carries out killings, raids, arrests, and closures in areas meant to be under PA ‘sovereignty’.

Under the 1993 Oslo Accords, the PA was created as an interim, transitional body meant to lead to an independent Palestinian state within five years. This ultimately never took place due to Israel’s ever-expanding illegal Jewish-only settlements, intensifying military occupation, and de-facto annexation of the occupied West Bank.

The PA is barred by Israel from having a military force. Instead, it has a police force with paramilitary capabilities, which is trained and financially supported by the United States and the European Union (EU). Israel dictates the number of personnel the PA is allowed to have, its areas of operation, as well as the number and type of weapons they are allowed to carry.

On 15 December, the US government asked Israel to approve US military aid to PA security forces for its Jenin operation, according to Axios, but the request has been denied.

The PA is also required under Oslo to share intelligence with Israel as part of its highly criticised policy of  “security coordination” whereby it assists the occupation in crushing armed resistance, including with arrests and killings - a practice it has been conducting since its inception.

Will the West Bank see mass opposition to the PA?

Over the past decade, the PA’s relevance and popularity have severely dwindled, with many describing it as a subcontractor for the Israeli occupation. Critics have also long pointed to the PA’s corruption and consecutive financial crises due to its dependence on Israel and foreign aid.

In 2021, the West Bank witnessed mass anti-PA protests after security forces murdered a well-known and outspoken critic by beating him to death, with demonstrators calling for Abbas to step down.

Another recent development was the re-emergence of limited Palestinian armed resistance in the northern occupied West Bank since 2021, particularly amid the increasing security vacuum and zero protection for residents exposed to daily lethal attacks by Israeli soldiers and settlers.

This new phenomenon posed a challenge to the PA’s power as armed groups gained mass popularity with protests in their favour.

Many on the ground now wonder whether the confrontation between resistance fighters and PA forces will spread to other parts of the northern West Bank where armed groups operate.

“This scene is definitely viable to being replicated in other cities. There is a nationalistic dimension to this. The PA is opening a front with every individual that agrees with the idea of resistance,” said Mansour.

Abdeljawad Hamayel, an academic at Birzeit University, pointed out that the resistance “still wishes to avoid confrontation or bloodshed with Palestinian forces”.

The situation, however, is liable to escalate, he said, particularly if the PA expands its operation into other parts of the West Bank. “This could lead to vengeance operations,” he noted, due to the close ties of Palestinian families and the fear that these killings could cause severe social cracks in the community.

But while the majority of public opinion in the West Bank may not be in support of the PA, analysts say that current conditions do not qualify for mass protests, nor does the public fully support resistance groups being on the offensive at this moment in time.

“In my opinion, the correct strategy right now is to remain in a state of self-preservation and perseverance. We are not in a place to attack or to push the struggle with the occupation towards a settlement. The occupation is the one that has the power to dictate matters, not us. We must hold back now, so that at a later stage we can move forward,” said al-Masri.

The armed resistance groups of the northern occupied West Bank are made up of fighters aged 17-35, with the majority in their early 20s. They do not have formal military training nor advanced weapons and are focused on defence during Israeli military raids.

The overwhelming fear among West Bank residents is of being next on Israel’s list after the horrific war on Gaza, a major factor in shifting public opinion in the PA’s favour, analysts explained. The PA has capitalised on this, warning residents of the dangers of Israel replicating its war in the West Bank.

While the resistance fighters of the West Bank are from across the political spectrum, Rajab, the security forces spokesman,  Gaza-based Hamas and Islamic Jihad as the ‘incubators,’ saying they are responsible for the devastation that has befallen Gaza. Such statements have spurred further fear among residents.

“Neither Jenin nor the genocide in Gaza moved the masses to the streets in a sufficient way. The issue is more complicated. People may be rallying around the PA out of fear, because despite how bad the PA is, people are now comparing themselves to Gaza,” said Mansour.

The PA’s operation in Jenin “unfolds amid the devastation in Gaza and global inaction, deepening Palestinian despair and a sense of powerlessness,” said Hamayel. “This fact has helped the PA argue that only cooperation and collaboration with Israel would ensure Palestinian survival.”

Aside from public fear, there exists a sizeable portion of the Palestinian population - a ruling elite - who are benefitting from the status quo remaining as it is, observers explained.

“There is a portion of the population that is against the resistance - we must not ignore this,” said al-Masri.

“After decades of Oslo, these people became rich and influential, and their interests are threatened by the resistance.”

Zena Tahhan is a freelance journalist based in the occupied Palestinian Territories. 

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