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Since the early hours of 27 November, when the US-brokered ceasefire ended one of the fiercest wars between Israel and Hezbollah in decades, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) began to move troops to southern Lebanon.

The ceasefire is the result of months-long indirect negotiations that ended a 13-month conflict between Israel and Hezbollah linked to Israel's war in Gaza following Hamas's attack on 7 October 2023.

In Lebanon, Israel killed nearly 4,000 people, injured almost 16,000, displaced over one million, and caused widespread devastation across the country, particularly in the south.

Despite suffering several casualties, the LAF did not actively engage in combat during the war. But now, it is responsible for playing a crucial role in maintaining the fragile truce.

The ceasefire agreement is based on UN Resolution 1701, which establishes a zone in southern Lebanon free of unauthorised weapons and militias, allowing only the United Nations mission UNIFIL and the LAF south of the Litani River.

First issued in 2006 after the Second Lebanon War but never fully implemented, the resolution also references other UN Resolutions, such as 1559, which calls for the disbandment of militias and the prevention of non-state actors regrouping in southern Lebanon.

In practical terms, the ceasefire agreement stipulates that the Israeli military and Hezbollah have 60 days to withdraw from southern Lebanon, with the LAF simultaneously deploying on the ground supported by UNIFIL.

The ceasefire agreement requires the LAF to deploy 10,000 LAF troops to ensure that the region is under the control of Lebanon's official security forces.

The LAF is also required to dismantle unauthorised military infrastructure and prevent the establishment of new sites.

It will further install checkpoints along major arteries, crossings, and frontiers, in coordination with UNIFIL and a tripartite mechanism headed by the US and France, to oversee adherence and bar non-state armed groups from operating within the southern Lebanese territory.

US Central Command announced last week that Major General Jasper Jeffers of Special Operations Command Central will co-chair the mechanism overseeing the cessation of hostilities.

The Lebanese parliament also extended the term of Lebanese Army Commander General Joseph Aoun.

While the LAF is expected to receive support from the US and France to enhance its ability to inspect and dismantle unauthorised arms and maintain security in southern Lebanon, it may face significant challenges in deploying troops and fulfilling its mission.

Lebanon's economic crisis has affected the LAF's resources in the last few years, reducing soldiers' wages and leaving them with outdated equipment and vehicles, which makes their mission even more challenging.

Only a portion of the 75,000 LAF personnel is currently deploying to the south, as the army must also maintain security across the entire country and support Lebanon's Internal Security Forces in managing internal security.

"The LAF's primary mission in the post-Civil War era, especially in the last 15 years, has been maintaining internal stability," Aram Nerguizian, senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told °®Âþµº.

Lebanon's Council of Ministers approved $1.3 million in early November to recruit 1,500 extra military personnel, with analysts expecting the number to rise by up to 5,000.

In addition to more troops, military expert Brigadier General Dr Hassan Jouni told TNA that the LAF needs more equipment, patrol vehicles, and logistical support to rebuild and equip its positions. But despite this, he said, "the Lebanese Army can begin to execute the mission now".

The LAF has indeed begun implementing the ceasefire in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and the southern suburbs of Beirut, including setting up checkpoints, opening roads, detonating unexploded ordnance, andÌýsupporting displacedÌýpeople, including helping them return home and ensuring their security.

It has also denounced Israel's multiple violations of the ceasefire since it took effect, with local media reporting incidents of Israeli attacks, strikes, and gunfire that wounded people returning to southern Lebanon.

On Sunday, France said that Israel had violated the ceasefire 52 times over a 24-hour period, with Hezbollah firing rockets on Monday that landed in an open area, highlighting the fragility of the ceasefire.

"In these 60 days, some confrontation may happen due to the complexity of implementing the ceasefire," JouniÌýexplained. "But after that, the international, regional, and local conditions will help implement this agreement."

However, what concerns Nerguizian most is that the LAF is burdened with the responsibility but not the authority to implement "what appears more like a disengagement plan than a ceasefire deal, which may or may not be implemented based on the goodwill of actors that are not the LAF".

The deal seems to have been crafted without proper consultation with the LAF and does not conform with "military-technical language," Nerguizian added.

"All the LAF is concerned with is the kind of deployment and the kind of permissive environment that allows it to extend state sovereignty to previously ungoverned spaces without escalating so dramatically that Lebanon spirals into another civil war. Because that's the risk," he said, adding that the LAF is operating without a clear overarching politically enabling environment.

Central to the implementation of the ceasefire is also the potential presence of Hezbollah and other armed groups's arms in southern Lebanon and how the LAF will address this.

Ali Rizk, a political and security affairs analyst, told TNA that the LAF is unlikely to search and dismantle Hezbollah's arms in southern Lebanon on its own initiative, as such searches may lead to confrontations with locals and the groups' cells. However, the US-led committee overseeing the agreement may pressure the LAF to conduct such operations.

"Hezbollah could move its weapons out of southern Lebanon before this scenario unfolds. This will be a challenging period for all sides," he said.

Imad Salamey, a professor of political science at the Lebanese American University, also told TNA that Hezbollah's compliance with the ceasefire terms, particularly the demand to disarm, is a decision that will be made in Tehran rather than Beirut, as Iran's strategy for Hezbollah will dictate its response.

"The LAF lacks the capacity to enforce disarmament on its own, as any direct action against Hezbollah could lead to internal conflict," he said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas reportedly welcomed Lebanon's ceasefire agreement, hoping for its permanence, and, in his first speech since the ceasefire, Hezbollah's new Secretary-General Naim Qassem pledged coordination with the army to implement the truce.

Hezbollah MP Mohammad Raad emphasised in a in Al-Akhbar newspaper that Lebanon's sovereignty lies in the People-Army-Resistance equation.

But Nerguizian argues that "as long as you have the People-Army-Resistance formula, you're not going to get a true extension of state sovereignty to the south, and by extension, the implementation of any UN resolution" because the dynamics along Lebanon's border are most stable when handled by state-to-state arrangements "along a clearly defined frontier".

Salamey also argues that disarming would undermine Hezbollah's identity, with any cooperation with the Lebanese government and the LAF likely limited to symbolic gestures or partial withdrawals.

"Confrontations could arise if the Lebanese government or army takes a more assertive stance under international pressure, especially with Israeli threats of renewed military action," he said, warning that this could escalate tensions between Hezbollah and other Lebanese factions, raising the risk of internal strife.

With political decisions likely to shape the LAF's ceasefire implementation, debates over Hezbollah's weapons may arise. While Rizk sees limited tensions, Salamey said sectarian divisions may resurface if there is no consensus over Hezbollah's continued armament.

Enforcing the ceasefire in southern Lebanon will pose several other challenges for the LAF, including a lack of financial resources, with international actors expected to provide financial support as Lebanon's economic crisis prevents the government from providing the necessary funding.

Additionally, the political consensus within Lebanon's political landscape on how to interpret and address the agreement will be crucial to determining the LAF's success in its implementation, Salamey explained.

But Jouni believes this agreement will lead to lasting border stability.

"The Lebanese government is now committed to full implementation after past failures that caused significant losses," he said.

However, what seems more concerning in the short term are continued violations of the ceasefire, which could shift the situation at any moment and bring war back to Lebanon.

Rizk said Israel is more likely than Hezbollah to abandon the ceasefire, but US involvement could discourage it from carrying out significant violations of the agreement.

"I think it's in Hezbollah's interest to implement a ceasefire," he said.

Dario Sabaghi is a freelance journalist interested in human rights

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