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As the world watched the outcome of the US presidential election on 5 November 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made his own headlines when he dismissed Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.

Netanyahu claimed Gallant’s firing was due to an erosion of trust between the two. But Israeli analysts and Gallant himself say the reason is over disagreements regarding ultra-Orthodox military service, the hostage situation in Gaza, and an official probe into Hamas’ attack on 7 October 2023.

“Since October 7th, Gallant has been a consistent thorn in Netanyahu’s side when it comes to the management of the war,” Alex Lederman from the Israel Policy Forum, an American-Jewish organisation promoting a two-state solution for Palestine and Israel, told °®Âţµş.

Despite being part of Netanyahu’s Likud party, Gallant has often challenged the premier on numerous issues even before the war. Netanyahu first fired Gallant in March 2023 over the defence minister’s opposition to the government's judicial overhaul plans. Netanyahu reversed the move after widespread public protest.

“Gallant is far more sensitive to the security establishment’s priorities, which have been more interested in prioritising bringing the hostages home, whereas Netanyahu feels political pressure not to do that from the far right, not wanting to concede anything to Hamas,” Lederman added.

This week, Netanyahu is preparing to revive a exempting ultra-Orthodox Jews from conscription, which Gallant opposed. However, Netanyahu sees the passage of this law as necessary to keep his fragile coalition together, which relies on Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) members. Reports indicated that one of Netanyahu’s top aides informed coalition leaders Gallant’s dismissal greenlights the advancement of the draft bill.

Gallant’s calls for a hostage-ceasefire deal as well as a state commission of inquiry into Hamas’ attack specifically looking at the governmental failures that allowed such an attack to occur have also been cited as Netanyahu’s reasoning for sacking the defence chief.

Yet analysts have also speculated that an even more sinister explanation was behind Netanyahu’s decision. On the day of Gallant’s firing, about an investigation over suspicions that security meeting minutes at the Prime Minister's Office were falsified. This development adds to the into the conduct of Netanyahu’s staff throughout the war.

“Firing Gallant was also a very good way to shift the public and media attention away from these investigations,” Dr Ilana Shpaizman, a political studies lecturer at Bar Ilan University, told TNA.

“One thing that Netanyahu does very well is playing with the agenda and shifting attention to issues he wants people to think about and away from issues he doesn't want people to think about.”

But it’s not just Gallant losing his job. Other government officials are also reportedly on the chopping block, Israel’s military chief of staff, the security agency chief, and the attorney general - all deemed dangerous to Netanyahu’s leadership.

“Firing Gallant was both a message that he wanted to send to potential dissenting voices within the coalition to try to silence dissent within the government that might emerge,” Lederman said.

Netanyahu replaced Gallant with Israel Katz, the former Israeli Foreign Affairs Minister and a known Netanyahu ally. While Katz has been part of Israel’s security cabinet during the war, he has not held any military or defence positions since completing his army service in 1977.

“Having a defence minister who is very loyal to Netanyahu and doesn't have these deep relationships with the security establishment that Gallant had, it'll put Netanyahu in a better position to fire additional heads of the security agencies,” Lederman explained.

New defence minister, same war

The news sent shockwaves through Israel, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets in protest, but what does this sudden change mean for Israeli policy in the Middle East and its wars in Gaza and Lebanon?

Shpaizman explained that Katz is merely a figurehead, allowing Netanyahu to be the sole decision-maker.

“What's happening is that Netanyahu is becoming the only person who is going to make the decisions regarding the war,” Shpaizman said.

On the ground, Gallant’s sacking has deepened the Israeli public’s distrust of Netanyahu, Dr Nimrod Goren, senior fellow for Israeli affairs at the Middle East Institute, explained.

“The argument that Netanyahu is acting on behalf of political survival and by that jeopardising national interest is now being elevated,” Goren said. “Gallant is considered by the Israeli public and the hostage families as the responsible guy, the experienced one within the coalition, and even with the US, the most significant partner for engagement.”

With Israel analysts emphasising that Netanyahu’s actions are further eroding democracy, Palestinian-Dutch Middle East analyst, Mouin Rabbani, noted that Gallant’s firing may shake up Israel’s domestic policies, but how the war is handled isn’t likely to change.

“You could make the argument that it's going to have an indirect impact, if the Orthodox rise in rebellion or if the security establishment starts not cooperating, but those scenarios are far-off,” Rabbani said.

“If you really look at the most important reasons that Gallant was fired, it had very little to do with the conduct of the war.”

So while this personnel change has certainly riled Israeli society, for Palestinians and Lebanese, a switch in the defence establishment doesn’t necessarily signify any real change.

Jessica Buxbaum is a Jerusalem-based journalist covering Palestine and Israel. Her work has been featured in Middle East Eye, The National, and Gulf News

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