Why Sisi is treading the middle ground in Russia's war on Ukraine
4 min read
President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi is under pressure from world powers to take a clear stance on as his country reels from the consequences of the invasion domestically.
Initially, Egypt hadbeen reluctant to take a political position and“diplomatic solutions and dialogue”.
ThispromptedG7 and European Union ambassadors to Egypt to release aon 1 March to pressure Egypt to be more decisive.
One day later,Egypt and 140 other countriesvoted in favourof a United Nations resolution that demanded Russia end its hostility against Ukraine.
"Since Sisi took power following a military coup in 2013 he has established friendly relations withWashington's rivalsChina and Russia"
Nevertheless, Egypt’s permanent UN representative in New YorkOsama Abdel-Khalek later Cairo's motivesandvoiced concerns over economic sanctions imposed on Russia.
By doing soEgypt attempted to maintain a middle ground in its ties with Moscow.
“It’s like Egypt was sending signals to both parties, the West and Russia, that it had been maintaining strategic relations,”foreign relations expert Ahmed Maher told .
“If Egypt takes sides with one party against the other and that party wins, the country’s interests will be gravely harmed.”
On 9 MarchSisi calledRussia’s President Vladimir Putin to urge diplomatic solutions to the crisis, reflecting the significance of .
Stuck in the middle
Since Sisi took power following a military coup in 2013 he has established friendly relations withWashington’s rivalsChina and Russia.
“Since Sisi took office, he gave up the country’s dependency on the US, seeking other alliances and [attempting] to deal with them on an equal footing. Such a policy resulted in opening doors for Egypt to buy arms from other countries,” Maher argues.
Egypt has purchased from Moscow and Beijingignoring repeated US threats.
At the same time, the country’s vital tourism sector dependson Russian and Ukrainian tourists whoflock to Red Sea resorts.
Moreover, Russia has been working on building Egypt’s El-Dabaa nuclear power plant, a $26-billion-.
While Sisi has also maintained good relations with the EU, especially France and Germany,balancingthese relations is becoming more difficultgiven the current global polarisation triggered by Russia'swar.
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As for the US, Egypt annually receives $1.3 billion in military aidand Washington and Cairo have high-level security cooperation andjoint intelligence sharing, especially after Sisi’s recent in mediating fighting between Hamas and Israel.
US President Joe Biden took office in January 2021 butonly initiated a phone call with Sisi in May that year afterEgypt a truce in the Gaza Strip.
During his electoral campaign, Biden had stated that he would not be offering Sisi, Trump's 'favourite dictator', any more blank cheques.
But these proved to be empty threatswith relations turning into‘.’
Most recentlythe top US general for forces in theMiddle East the US would provideEgyptwith F-15 aircraft.
Egypt has interests in Ukraine asa US ally and a member of the EU and would not risk jeopardising these relations.
“It all depends on how the crisis will end up. At any rate, Sisi will likely keep a neutral track for as long as he can,” political sociologist Dr Said Sadek told .
"After the Russian invasion food prices soared,leading to unease among the poorest in Egyptwho depend on staples such as bread and wheat for almost every meal"
Domestic turmoil
In addition to Sisi’s foreign policy dilemmahe has also been facing domestic challenges as a result of the war.
Egypt is the world'snumber one importer of wheat, which isa strategic commodity in the country, and a large portion is supplied by both Russia and Ukraine.
Not only thatbut Egypt also imports a considerable amount of corn used for animal and poultry feed from Ukraine.
After the Russian invasion food prices soared,leading to unease among the poorest who depend on staples such as bread and wheat for almost every meal.
The hashtag'the revolution of the poor iscoming'trended for days on social media in Egypt.
As a result,Sisi and impose huge fines on bakers who oppose prices set by the government.
But with the imposed by the Central Bank of Egypt on Mondayand the hike in the value of the US dollarthere are no guarantees that prices will stabilise, especially since over 60% of products are imported.
The World Bank has warned that a 30% rise in food prices could result in a 12%in a country whereabout a third of the 100 million population live below the poverty line.
The looming question now is whether the poorest will protestagainst deteriorating economic conditions, which long preceded the war in Ukraine.
“Typically, opposition forces seize such crises to score points and settle accounts. The media, loyal to the regime, has been adopting the same narrative that any [crisis] has been global, pinning it to the war, not to domestic mismanagement," Sadek told TNA.
"In other words, the official message is: ‘don’t blame the government for any crisis in case it happens'."
Thaer Mansour is a journalist based in Cairoreporting for on politics, culture, and social affairs
