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Earlier this month, Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ordered the unconditional release of 1,584 prisoners, constituting Bahrain’s biggest royal pardon since the Arab Spring erupted in 2011.

Among those freed were a number of political prisoners. Many Bahraini and international human rights organisations spent years campaigning for their release.

Although not all political prisoners in Bahrain have been freed by the authorities, this latest royal pardon was a major development that surprised many experts.

King Hamad ordered these releases at the time of Eid. It is common for leaders of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member-states to make major announcements regarding prisoner releases, pardons, succession, and cabinet reshuffles during the final days of Ramadan. Therefore, although the number of prisoners released took many experts by surprise, the timing did not.

Releasing the prisoners during this time of Ramadan was “somewhat intended to provide some sort of blessing to this decision, so I am not that surprised [about King Hamad’s royal pardon],” Dr Aziz Alghashian, a fellow with the Sectarianism, Proxies & De-sectarianisation project at Lancaster University, told ������.

Reasons for the releases

As documented over the years by organisations such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, there have been serious human rights abuses in Bahrain. The archipelago kingdom’s political environment is known for high levels of repression. Authorities have severely curtailed civil liberties. There is a lack of independent media in the country and torture has been rampant.

While waging a crackdown on dissent in 2011 and in the following period, Bahrain’s government received significant support from two of its fellow GCC members - Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

As uprisings and revolts were taking place all over the Arab world in 2011, both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi feared the prospects for a successful Arab Spring revolution in the Gulf, particularly in Bahrain given the sectarian and Iran-related factors in play.

“The number of detainees held for political and security reasons - as well as political deportees living abroad - is very large given the size of the Bahraini population. It weighs on Bahraini society,” explained Dr Kristin Smith Diwan, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, in an interview with TNA.

“While the leadership has enforced security and established political workarounds, it falls short of a fully inclusive order and popular basis for economic advancement.”

King Hamad’s royal pardon is important to the Bahraini government’s efforts to chart a new course and leave behind some of the serious problems from the Arab Spring period that did much to tarnish the Arab Gulf kingdom’s reputation.

This prisoner release has “provided an opportunity for a gesture that portrayed the leadership as looking forward and moving on from the events of 2011,” Dr Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a fellow for the Middle East at Rice University’s Baker Institute, told TNA.

For decades, Bahrain has maintained deep relationships with the US and UK. However, issues related to human rights violations have created complications in these relationships. As Dr Steven Wright, an Associate Professor of International Relations at Hamad Bin Khalifa University, said in a TNA interview, the hunger strikes and ongoing demonstrations in Bahrain’s Jau prison have put more of an international spotlight on Bahrain’s human rights abuses.

“What is important here is that we have seen members of the US Congress publicly raise such concerns. What is different now is that on 19 March, the US State Department gave the green light for Bahrain’s request for a USD 2.2 billion defence deal for fifty M1A2 Abrams Main Battle Tanks and related equipment which is subject to Congressional approval,” noted Dr Wright.

“This is a highly significant defence deal for Bahrain, and I believe the prisoner release is simply a means of clearing a pathway for Congressional approval.”

What comes next for Bahrain?

It is difficult to confidently predict what this prisoner release will mean for the long-term future of Bahrain’s political arena and societal dynamics.

While it is likely that international attention will, at least to some extent, shift away from Bahrain’s human rights abuses after this release, domestic attention will probably remain heavily focused on remaining prisoners in the country, including high-profile political figures in the opposition and human rights activists such as and .

This royal pardon will be “part of a long and drawn out tacit negotiative process with the public,” believes Dr Alghashian. “The release of prisoners will be referenced by officials and pro-government people as an illustration that the King and government are willing to listen and hear out grievances [and] to be flexible,” added the Saudi scholar.

“On the other hand, the opposition and sceptics will welcome this, but will also use this as a reference to expand upon. They will encourage the government to do more but will have to be careful of not watering down their issues with the state too much.”

It is important to bear in mind that years ago Bahrain began the important process of moving past the Arab Spring and the painful episodes of that period. The tempo picked up after Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa became Bahrain’s Prime Minister in November 2020. Yet, more must be done to truly move past 2011.

“Full political reconciliation will only be achieved by the release of the political prisoners and the unbanning of political societies linked to legitimate opposition groups, and that has not yet happened,” commented Dr Ulrichsen.

When addressing this month’s prisoner release, Dr Diwan told TNA that “it’s unclear as to whether this will lead to a political dialogue and opening as, essentially, it was bestowed by the King and not coordinated with organised political forces or personalities, although they have welcomed it and called for further steps”.

The Gaza factor

Having normalised with Israel via the Abraham Accords in 2020, there is a significant amount of domestic opposition to Manama’s formalised relationship with Tel Aviv. Since Israel’s barbaric war on Gaza began a little more than six months ago, the Palestinian issue and Bahrain’s relationship with Israel have fuelled more friction within the archipelago state.

Also in the picture is the fact that Bahrain has been the only Arab state to officially join ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’ and to play a non-operational role in the past three months of US-UK bombings in Yemen, which have been in response to Houthi maritime attacks targeting Israeli-affiliated merchant and commercial vessels in the Gulf of Aden and southern Red Sea.

Although the Bahraini government has not pulled out of the 2020 normalisation accord with Israel, citizens of the country have been vocal in calling for an abrogation of the Abraham Accords and showcasing solidarity with Palestinians.

Notably, the Gaza war has brought about greater unity among Bahraini citizens. “Popular anti-normalisation campaigns have decreased the sectarian divide in popular political action as the vast majority of Bahrainis - Shia and Sunni - oppose Bahrain’s ties with Israel,” Dr Diwan told TNA.

“The situation in Gaza has undoubtedly had an impact in Bahrain, given the leadership's decision in 2020 to normalise with Israel and participate in the Abraham Accords, which has had far less acceptance at societal level than in the UAE,” offered Dr Ulrichsen.

“It may be that a prisoner release is seen as a way of opening a safety valve to offset the rise of tension elsewhere.”

Indeed, there is no doubt that Bahrain is not immune from internal and external pressures. In light of escalating hostilities between Iran and Israel, such tensions within Bahrain have the potential to further mount in the upcoming days, weeks, and months.

Nonetheless, the leadership in Manama, by freeing so many political prisoners, seems to have made a decision that could help reduce tension in the country.

How much the tension will reduce, however, is another question.

Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics.

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