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Erbil - In 2015, Russia came to the rescue of Syrian government forces when it entered the war against opposition forces, employing an onslaught of airstrikes, advisors, and arms.

Should it choose not to - or prove unable to - this time around, bogged down as it is with its own war on Ukraine, regional dynamics may shift significantly.

The frontline in northern Syria meanwhile continues to do just that by the hour.

An offensive launched on 27 November by armed opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), long the strongest and most well-organised group in the Idlib province, shocked both long-time close observers of the war-fragmented country and those living in it due to the lightning advances and - for the most part - minimal resistance from Syrian government forces and its allies, including Iran-linked factions.

After rapidly taking terrain in the western part of the Aleppo province that had been fought over for months or years in the past, the Syrian opposition forces pushed into the city of Aleppo itself and took districts that they had never had under their control before.

Among the towns and areas taken in recent days were ones subjected to relentless bombing and chemical attacks when the Syrian government and allied forces were trying to retake them from armed opposition groups. Now, these same areas seemed to have almost been simply handed over to the latter.

On 1 December, an HTS-led body called the Military Operations Management announced the “return of Idlib province to its people, after we finished liberating” the “entire Aleppo and Idlib governorates”.

The operation is still ongoing, though the momentum has slowed, and reinforcements have reportedly arrived to shore up Syrian government forces in the city of Hama and elsewhere.

White Helmets board member Ammar Selmo, who was previously head of the civil defence organisation’s Aleppo office and was involved in rescuing those in the city itself prior to the 2016 takeover by Syrian government forces of opposition-held areas, told °®ÂţµşĚýon 1 December that “all Syrians are living a dream these days”.

The White Helmets operate solely in opposition-held areas and have offices in Turkey.

“Since the beginning of the year until Nov. 27, some 300 people were killed” in attacks occurring virtually “every day, and thousands injured, while infrastructure was also destroyed, as well as their livelihoods” through destroying their farms in an area that survives predominantly from agricultural activities.

“Something needed to be done to deter” such attacks, he stressed.

Deterring Russian and regime attacks

“I think it is a combination of very legitimate political and humanitarian need” that led to the offensive, Syria analyst Gregory Waters told °®Âţµş, alongside an attempt to “reshape the dynamics on the ground”.

He added that “HTS has been wanting to do something for a while”, as “they are always looking to do something to change dynamics in their favour in the northwest, and that is why we had their attempts to get more involved in Afrin and north Aleppo two years ago”.

In terms of why conditions were ripe now, he noted that the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel changed "how a lot of actors in the region perceived this presumed stability or frozenness" of whatever conflict they are part of.

"So, I think, especially with HTS, they are keen for a way to make a change, and when you combine that with the regime’s really rapid adoption of Russian drones - which increased the violence they were able to inflict on Idlib, on both HTS military and civilians in Idlib over the last year - I think that also really spurred them to do something,” he added.

“I think you got a sense for several years that HTS had the advantage in terms of drone technology, and then all of a sudden the regime gets this massive influx of high-quality Russian FPV and suicide drones, and they’re hitting them [with] a dozen drone strikes per day - and something has to change. And they [had] lost the ability to do effective deterrence against them,” he noted.

“And so I think you combine all these things - I think that there is a very legitimate part of needing to deter Russian and regime attacks against Idlib.”

The idea, Waters continued, is to “go and take a bunch of land they were using to launch drone attacks” to halt or at least curb similar attacks and reduce the number of people being killed despite a ceasefire officially being in place.

Moreover, it’s also a way to tell Syrian government and allied forces that “you can’t just sit there and attack us in this semi-ceasefire, every day, for a year without consequences,” as well as “an attempt to change the facts on the ground in a way that forces regional actors on both sides - both Turkey and Russia - to accept a new reality. Kind of mirroring off how Israel has just used pure force to force the US to constantly change their stance, their red lines, when it comes to Gaza and [the] West Bank and Lebanon,” Waters said.

How Turkey and Russia could respond next

“As far as what might happen next, I think a lot depends on the two regional actors Turkey and Russia. Russia seems to have not gotten involved very much at all in the defence of the regime for the first time since 2015, and because of that we’re seeing HTS and their allies being able to continue to expand,” Waters told °®Âţµş.

“I think if we continue to see the Russians uninvolved, we could see the opposition continue to hold a lot of this territory.”

The reason for this, he said, is “because these regime units - I mean, all of their fighting, all their training, for the past ten years has been built around the idea of intense Russian air support and also Russian command, Russian officers helping organise all their operations. And all that is gone. I think they are struggling to organise themselves across a wide front”.

But “I think it is not clear yet where Turkey stands on this - and more importantly, what Turkey will do, if anything. If they are going to get involved militarily to defend the territories taken thus far, or diplomatically to push the Russians and the regime to accept what has happened thus far”.

For the time being, Waters added, “there is quite a bit to be optimistic about in terms of the opposition holding what it has taken. But we will have to see what the Russians do, if they do get involved, if they have any red lines of their own that trigger a response because they are really not bombing right now - anything close to what we saw them do” in the past.

IDPs returning but administration to be a test

White Helmets board member Selmo told °®Âţµş that the destruction and killings of civilians in opposition-held areas since the beginning of the year had been carried out through “about 500 attacks, especially by suicide drones – which are very accurate, and very dangerous - most of which originating from the areas the operation targeted first: Saraqeb and western Aleppo”.

Selmo said that, paradoxically, the “regime media played an important role” in the gains by opposition forces, since they “demoralised [government] soldiers claiming that Israel was supporting the opposition forces with weapons".Ěý

This, he said, “frightened the soldiers” after their having seen what Israel had done in the past year.

Several phone numbers on 2 December calling for members of the Syrian military to defect and offering assistance, saying that “your leadership has abandoned you”. Flyers had also been dropped in some areas in previous days via drones calling for the same.

In any case, he added to °®Âţµş in a jubilant voice, “so many people will now be able to go back to their homes” in the areas retaken.

Selmo estimated that thousands had already returned to “my city alone, Safira”.

Settling into more measured tones, Selmo said that the gains will also be a “test for the armed groups”, with which he said he did not have any particular affinity but in whom he had seen “significant improvement over the past five years” in terms of being able to govern a diverse group of civilians.

The coming weeks and months will in any case be a test of “their ability to manage cities and deal with people fairly”, he said.

He added that some members of shadowy pro-government forces from his area had contacted him before the opposition forces arrived, asking him for an opinion on what to do.

Selmo told °®Âţµş that there could be court cases against them in future but that he had told them that, for now, the best thing was simply to stay unarmed in their homes and that no one would hurt them.

And many pro-government supporters have done just that, he added.

“This point is important,” he stressed. “Many people used to leave their homes when forces from the other side entered their areas. This time, so very many stayed.”

Shelly Kittleson is a journalist specialising in the Middle East and Afghanistan. Her work has been published in several international, US, and Italian media outlets.

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