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Just two days after the , prime minister of the Chechen Republic and staunch Putin ally immediately announced that his forces would join Russian troops on the battlefield and declared his unwavering support for the war.

With a reputation for being fierce and ruthless fighters, Chechen forces were likely an integral part of the Kremlin’s military plans. However, as the struggles against Ukrainian resistance, many analysts have questioned their impact on the ground.

Even prior to Ukraine's bloody conflict, some experts claimed that the significance of Kadyrov’s support is actually a sign of Putin’s military weakness and evidence of the Kremlin’s slipping grip on Chechnya.

The sheriff of Chechnya

Kadyrov has been Putin’s right-hand man in the rebellious Russian autonomous republic since 2007 after succeeding this position from his father, Akhmad Kadyrov, who was assassinated by a rebel bomb in 2004.

Kadyrov played an important role in the Second Chechen war in 1999 when he and and several other Chechen factions allied with Moscow to defeat fighters and then worked with Russian security forces in eliminating the remaining Chechen insurgency.

Putin has since relied on Kadyrov, who rules Chechnya with an iron fist, crushing any opposition and human rights activists who criticise his thuggish style of leadership. Since 2007, his authoritarian rule has been focused on cracking down on separatist movements and , and Putin has reciprocated by financing Kadyrov’s rule.

Kadyrov has established a 30,000-strong paramilitary security force, known as "", whose members reportedly swear a personal oath to Kadyrov despite being formally subordinated to Moscow.

Over the years, Kadyrov’s influence in Putin’s Russia has extended beyond the borders of tiny Chechnya. It is that Kadyrov was behind the murders of well-known Russian opposition leaders, journalists and lawyers, including the  of Boris Nemtsov, a prominent Russian opposition leader in 2015, , a journalist investigating human rights abuses in Chechnya, and Natalya Estemirova, a human rights activist. In 2017, the United States sanctions on the Chechen president over his human rights record. 

Chechen fighters in Ukraine

Reports indicate that at least 10,000 Chechen soldiers have already been deployed in Ukraine. The of Ramzan Kadyrov and his lieutenants to the Ukrainian front is a further signal that the Chechen leader will play a significant role in Russian war plans. 

Kadyrov, an avid user of social media, has been regularly posting pictures and videos of himself and his Chechen soldiers participating in military actions from the Ukrainian front, most recently his troops fighting in .

Chechen forces have been involved in heavy fighting in the western suburbs of Kyiv and strategic airfield of Hostomel, together with Russian paratroopers who seized it on the first day of the war. They have also played a key role in the street fighting in the besieged town of Mariupol. 

An elite squad of Chechen fighters have been accused by Ukraine of trying to assassinate the president, Volodimir Zelensky, on at least three occasions. 

Both sides have used the presence of Chechen fighters as a propaganda tool in the psychological dimensions of the war. Chechen forces have earned a reputation for being aggressive and tough fighters, whose presence should boost the Russian firepower and instil fear. Russia has weaponised this widely held image of the brutality of Chechens, attempting to intimidate Ukrainian forces and civilians.

Ukrainians, on the other hand, have been using the same stereotypes to present Russians as brutal and blood-thirsty invaders. A widely shared showed members of the infamous , accused of harbouring neo-Nazi ideology, greasing bullets in pork fat to be used against Russia’s Muslim soldiers and “Kadyrov orcs.”

Nevertheless, some analysts think that the Chechen presence is nothing more than a public relations display aimed at boosting the position of both the Kremlin and Kadyrov, and question the significance of their impact on the ground.

But not all Chechens have sided with Russia, and the Kadyrovtsy are not the only Chechen forces fighting in Ukraine. Anti-Russian Chechen forces composed of Chechen exiles and veterans of the first and second Chechen wars for independence are fighting alongside Ukrainians against Kadyrov’s forces. 

How close are Kadyrov and Putin?

The Chechen leader has so far been a loyal ally of Putin, often describing himself as a “foot soldier” of the Russian president, but future developments will certainly put his loyalty to the Kremlin to the test. 

Despite Kadyrov’s enthusiasm for the war, he has also disagreed with Russian tactics and slow advancement, and criticised the shelling of humanitarian corridors in several cities. He has repeatedly called for a large-scale operation in all directions and urged Putin to give appropriate orders so that “.”

Another potential crack in the alliance between the two strongmen has its roots in Kadyrov’s father, who initially fought for Chechen independence against Russia until switching sides to become Putin’s ally. Observers and analysts believe that, despite his loyalty, Kadyrov is not controlled by Moscow. 

Still, despite certain disagreements and Russian intelligence reports that identify Kadyrov as a threat, Paul Goble, adjunct professor at the Institute of World Politics and former special advisor to the Secretary of State James Baker emphasises that Putin sees Kadyrov as valuable as someone who will always do Putin’s dirty work and advocate an even tougher approach than Putin.

“That is useful because Putin can then invoke Kadyrov’s advocacy to push for that approach himself,” he told ������.

On the other hand, the heavy casualties sustained by Kadyrov’s forces may affect Chechen motivation and engagement in a war fought far away from their home.

Some analysts believe that the longer Kadyrov’s forces are away, and as the economic situation at home deteriorates, the risk of discontent grows. This may spur ethnic and religious tensions throughout Russia, especially in the restless North Caucasus region, and Chechnya itself.

However, as long as the Kremlin continues to fund Kadyrov and gives him absolute power over Chechnya, he will remain loyal to Putin and follow his war efforts. On the contrary, if Putin tries to limit his power or remove him, Moscow may face another rebellion in the Caucasus, something Putin hopes to avoid.

Goble observes that Kadyrov’s regime is repressive but fragile. In his view, it is entirely possible that someone within his government or the population will rise up against him. He also said that Kadyrov’s security services are good but not perfect.

"At some point, he is likely to be overthrown," he noted. 

Ukraine war divides Russia’s Muslims

The war in Ukraine has divided the Muslim community within Russia. According to the grand mufti of Russia, Sheikh Rawil Gaynetdin, the Muslim community numbered in 2018, almost 15 percent of the total population.

A considerable number of Russian soldiers have a Muslim background, and the war will test Muslims’ allegiances to the Kremlin. Muslim clerics have so far have backed Vladimir Putin’s offensive and tried to rally the support of Russia’s Muslims, but by supporting the Kremlin’s invasion, they risk being discredited in the eyes of their followers.

The steep death toll of soldiers of Muslim origin may undermine the fragile ethnic and religious of the nation, and lead ethnic minorities to question the Russian invasion. If this happens, it could have deeper ethno-political ramifications and risks destabilising not just Russia but the entire region of the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Stasa Salacanin is a freelance journalist who has written extensively on Middle Eastern affairs, trade and political relations, Syria and Yemen, and terrorism and defence.