°®Âţµş

For decades, Lebanon and Syria have endured a tense and often hostile relationship, shaped by wars, assassinations, occupation, and civil conflicts.

While factions on both sides of the border have interfered in each other's affairs, frustration and resentment simmered among their broader populations.

The Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah was instrumental in propping up Bashar Al-Assad’s regime during Syria's civil war, which began with peaceful mass protests in 2011. The group’s fighters were accused of in regions opposing Assad, deepening animosity.

Analysts now see Assad’s collapse in December 2024 as a dual blow to Hezbollah, reflecting its faltering position following the war with Israel and hampering its ability to rearm.

Reflecting this tense relationship, Syria in Lebanon on 27 December after two relatives of the ousted Syrian president were caught at Beirut’s international airport with forged passports reportedly issued at the Syrian embassy.

This incident underscores the complicated and intertwined fates of the two neighbours, raising questions about how various factions across their diverse sectarian and political landscapes will navigate this seismic shift.

“It’s an opportunity to reframe Lebanese-Syrian relations on new, more respectful grounds,” said Bilal Abdullah, a Lebanese MP from the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP).

“The departure of Assad’s regime opens the door for Lebanon and Syria to rebuild ties based on mutual respect and shared interests, free from the shadow of Syria’s past interference in Lebanon’s internal affairs,” he added.

Walid Jumblatt, leader of the PSP, signalled a willingness to turn the page on the contentious past with a symbolic visit to Damascus after 15 years of estrangement. His meeting with Syria’s interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, was hailed as historic, underscoring hopes for a new chapter in Lebanese-Syrian relations.

Reactions and caution

Lebanon’s political factions have responded differently to Assad’s fall, revealing the country’s enduring ideological divisions.

For the 14 March coalition - longtime opponents of Syrian influence - the regime’s collapse is a vindication of their stance. Lebanese MP Bilal Abdullah praised the “brotherly” meeting between Jumblatt and al-Sharaa as a pivotal moment for reconciliation.

Yet, caution prevails among Hezbollah and its allies. “The changes in Syria are being viewed with apprehension by the former regime’s backers, particularly Iran and Hezbollah, who are grappling with the loss of Syria as a strategic stronghold for resistance operations,” said political analyst Mohammad Hamieh.

Hamieh also highlighted regional concerns, noting fears of Islamist factions gaining influence in Syria’s transitional phase. “The rise of groups like the Muslim Brotherhood could complicate Lebanon’s position, particularly as it seeks to maintain stability amidst regional uncertainties,” he said.

Lingering challenges

The fall of Assad has reignited hopes of resolving long-standing disputes between Lebanon and Syria. One pressing issue is border control. “Lebanese-Syrian borders are chaotic, which has long been a hotbed for smuggling - particularly Captagon, a drug whose trafficking has strained Lebanon’s relations with the Gulf states,” Abdullah explained.

The Syrian civil war turned the country into a hub for Captagon production, fuelling a $10 billion global trade. The porous Lebanese-Syrian border allowed the drug to flow into Gulf markets, exacerbating tensions. Improved border security, analysts say, is crucial for both nations to address this illicit trade effectively.

The refugee crisis remains another contentious issue. Over 1.5 million Syrian refugees reside in Lebanon, placing enormous strain on its fragile economy. Since December, more than 58,000 Syrians have returned home, but a comprehensive plan for their repatriation requires stability, reconstruction, and international support.

“Stabilising Syria and securing its borders could resolve up to 90% of smuggling, trafficking, and displacement issues,” said political analyst Asaad Bishara. He emphasised the importance of international organisations like the UN in supporting reconstruction efforts and facilitating refugee returns.

Last week, in the first signs of friction, Syria imposed on the entry of Lebanese citizens into the country after armed skirmishes between the Lebanese army and armed Syrians at the Masnaa crossing.

Previously, Lebanese nationals could enter Syria using their passport or ID without needing a visa.

Additionally, unresolved border demarcation issues - both land and maritime - continue to hinder progress. A peaceful resolution of these disputes could pave the way for a more cooperative relationship between the two nations.

Economic prospects and regional dynamics

The end of Assad’s rule offers a rare chance for Lebanon and Syria to recalibrate their economic relationship. Lebanon, reeling from a severe financial crisis worsened by the 2019 Beirut port explosion, has historically suffered from economic imbalances with Syria.

“During Assad’s tenure, economic ties were hampered by political tensions and exploitative policies. Now, both countries could benefit from collaboration in agriculture, trade, and tourism,” Bishara said. He added that renewed cooperation could help revitalise Syria’s battered economy while providing Lebanon with much-needed economic relief.

The broader regional context will also shape the trajectory of Lebanese-Syrian relations. Hamieh noted that international attitudes toward Syria’s transitional government, particularly from Gulf states, Turkey, and the US, will influence Lebanon’s approach.

“The normalisation of Syria’s relations with the Gulf would likely lead to a broader regional realignment, benefiting Lebanon economically and politically,” he said.

Despite these opportunities, challenges remain. Both countries face pivotal political milestones, including parliamentary and presidential elections and the drafting of Syria’s new constitution. These events will define the framework for future ties between Beirut and Damascus.

The road ahead

While the Lebanese and Syrian foreign ministers have exchanged hopes for “neighbourly relations,” Hamieh pointed out that a formal Lebanese government visit to Syria hinges on two factors.

“First, the international community’s response to the new Syrian government will significantly shape Lebanon’s stance,” he said. “Second, the new Syrian regime’s handling of sensitive issues, including the fate of displaced Syrians and detainees, will be central to any reconciliation.”

As the region adapts to a post-Assad reality, Lebanon finds itself at a critical juncture. The challenges are formidable, but with careful navigation, this could mark the beginning of a more stable and cooperative relationship between the two historically linked neighbours.

This piece is published in collaboration with .