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In recent months, there have been renewed international discussions around the and its holy sites.

In September, former British PM Liz Truss to her Israeli counterpart, Yair Lapid, that the UK had plans to move its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, following in the footsteps of former US President Donald Trump in 2018.

Truss’ proposal came less than two weeks after US State Secretary Anthony Blinken in a letter to Jerusalem’s Patriarch Theophilos III that the US remains committed to the status quo of religious sites in the city.

Without making any remarks on whether the US planned to reverse Trump’s decision and return the US embassy to Tel Aviv, Blinken reaffirmed the official US position on Israeli-Palestinian affairs.

“The United States, under the leadership of President Biden, believes that pushing forward with these values is an important step toward maintaining a negotiated two-state solution, on the 1967 borders with territorial amendments,” he said.

Early in November, Britain’s new prime minister, Rishi Sunak, on Truss’ vow. The UK government’s spokesman said that the country did not have plans to move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. 

Palestinians welcomed the step, which came only days before the 105th anniversary of the , which granted European Jews a homeland in Palestine. The retraction at least reinstated Britain’s traditional diplomatic posture, which considers East Jerusalem as occupied Palestinian territory.

While thankful, Hussam Zomlot, Palestine’s representative in the UK, “the question about the location of the UK's embassy should never have been asked in the first place”.

The British step came less than two weeks after the Australian government from its website a reference to West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

With such retractions, the fragile status quo of Jerusalem has temporarily been maintained on the international stage. At home, however, the picture does not look as comforting.

The Israeli general election on 1 November saw a for former PM Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right allies. Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc now has 64 seats out of 120 in the Knesset, a comfortable majority to form a relatively stable government. 

Israeli politics has been moving towards the right for decades. The recent electoral round, however, has doubled the seats of the far-right Religious Zionism bloc headed by extremists Bezalel Smotrich and . With 14 seats in the Knesset, they can make or break a strong coalition with Netanyahu’s Likud.

As the primary force that propelled him to power, Netanyahu’s debt to the far-right cannot be overstated. Already a hawkish opponent of a Palestinian state and a zealous supporter of a 'unified Jerusalem, he is potentially poised to shift his Likud Party further to the right to meet the demands and expectations of his extremist allies. He may have no choice but to give Smotrich and Ben-Gvir the ministries they were gunning for: Public Security and the Treasury.

Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have been advocates for politicising the Israeli judiciary and giving the Knesset power to override its decisions. Ben-Gvir, in particular, has been outspoken in his anti-Palestinian sentiments, and previously called for the expulsion of Israel’s Palestinian citizens.

Succeeding in undermining the judiciary could lead to further draconian measures. Palestinians fear this could turn what once were hollow threats and hesitant steps into reality.

Following the election, a Religious Zionist politician  that he “certainly thinks and hopes” that the new coalition will change Jerusalem’s status quo. Meanwhile, Jordanian officials have that ties with Israel will suffer if the new coalition tries to alter the situation in the Old City. 

The source reportedly took aim at Ben-Gvir, who has been leading the incitement campaign against Palestinian Jerusalemites and has repeatedly taken part in controversial visits to the al-Aqsa Mosque compound.

A growing number of messianic groups under the umbrella of the Temple Mount movement have sought in recent years to overturn the status quo and establish Jewish sovereignty over the religious site.

Jerusalem's status quo

The current status quo of Jerusalem’s Old City dates to the Ottoman era, beginning with the 1852 ‘firman’ or treaty by Sultan Abdulmejid I which ensured that Jerusalem’s Muslims, Christians, and Jews would maintain their separate quarters and areas of religious dominion.

The arrangement was upheld in the 1856 Paris Peace Convention Treaty; the 1919 Versailles Peace Treaty; and the British Mandate's 1922 Palestine Order-in-Councils.

The 1947 UN partition plan of Palestine assigned Jerusalem a ‘corpus separatum', or international, status. However, with Israel’s establishment in 1948 and the mass displacement and dispossession of Palestinians, Jewish militias took control of West Jerusalem. East Jerusalem remained under Jordanian rule, later to be formalised as a de facto division under the 1949 Israel-Jordan Armistice Agreement.

Soon after Israel had occupied East Jerusalem in 1967, the Israeli authorities demolished the 800-year-old Arab Muslim quarter of Al-Mughrabi (Moroccan quarter) and expelled its residents to expand access for Jews to the Western Wall. In 1981, the Knesset voted to annex the occupied city.

Incrementally since then, attempts to change the demographic, administrative, architectural, and archaeological reality of the old city have continued, notably escalating in the past decade. Since 2020, several bloody confrontations have taken place between Israeli authorities and Palestinian protesters, who have tried to thwart Israeli attempts to alter the holy city’s historic status.

Before 2003, the Israeli government allowed a maximum of three religious Jews to enter the al-Aqsa compound at the same time. In 2009, the of Jewish Israelis entering the Muslim site reached 5,000. It rose significantly in 2016 to 15,000, then 25,000 in 2017, and 30,000 in 2019.

In the first three months of this year, such visits soared by 35% compared to the year prior. By the end of August, a total of 40,000 Israeli Jews had entered the al-Aqsa compound under the protection of Israeli security forces.  Some performed Talmudic prayers within its parameters. 

Since 2017, the visits have become a near-daily carried out between 7.30am and 10.30am, and again between 1pm and 2pm under police protection, and despite Palestinian protests.

Why it matters

Palestinians view their presence and the status of their Muslim and Christian holy sites in East Jerusalem as being under existential threat, especially after former US President Donald Trump recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

The consensus today is that the increased frequency of Israeli encroachments has, more than ever, compromised the two-state solution and effectively perpetuated Israel’s occupation.

Jehad Malaka, a Gaza-based analyst and researcher, said that any steps to change the status quo would be a gross violation of international law and would ultimately kill the two-state solution. Increased protests and confrontations would ensue and ending the Israeli occupation would become an even bigger challenge.

Malaka said that Washington’s declared commitment to preserving the status quo is not carved in stone and is governed by changes in the international political arena. Because of a long experience of betrayals by the United States, Palestinians have learnt to distrust Washington’s promises. Blinken’s recent comments, therefore, should be approached with great scepticism. 

In defending the status quo, the Palestinian Authority’s options are limited to diplomatic lobbying and calls for mobilisation and protests. Malaka is doubtful that freezing Israel-PA security coordination to strong-arm Israel regarding al-Aqsa is a likely scenario, as it may jeopardise the PA’s survival and its ability to secure the daily needs of Palestinians in the occupied territories. 

With the Israeli far-right in power, the situation in Jerusalem has grown extremely volatile. Should the Religious Zionism party follow through on their previous threats to end or alter the status quo, then we are headed for a major explosion on par with or exceeding what happened in May 2021.

Dr Emad Moussa is a researcher and writer who specialises in the politics and political psychology of Palestine/Israel.

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