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'Zarifgate' increases pressure

For days, the , which criticised the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and Qasem Soleimani, dominated the front pages of the Iranian newspapers, while the term 'Zarifgate' – a reference to President Richard Nixon's Watergate scandal – has been circulating in social media outlets.

Tehran's Prosecutor General, Ali Alghasi-Mehr, has  that the Security Court of Tehran had begun an investigation into "the theft and illegal publication" of the audiotape.

Meanwhile, the secretary of the Iranian Parliament's praesidium, Hossein-Ali Haji-Deligani, has  that several legislators had called for a legal complaint to be raised with the judiciary against and Foreign Minister Zarif over the material.

Tapes expose rift with the IRGC

Zarif belongs to the , who aim to open Iran and free it from the paralysing sanctions of the last decades.

The reformist approach has been continuously opposed by the country's . As such, it could be assumed that the relationship between Zarif and the IRGC would be .

The IRGC controls essential aspects of Iran's foreign policy, denying Zarif influence wherever possible

In the leaked conversation, Zarif complains about having limited power despite his position a Foreign Minister. He states that the , denying Zarif influence wherever possible.

In 2019, Zarif was not  of 's visit, an event that led Zarif to consider resigning. Zarif's rift with the IRGC has since been an open secret, which has been further confirmed by the leaked audio material.

Zarif trips on Soleimani's long shadow

More controversially, in the tapes Zarif critiques , the  of the Al-Quds forces, who was in January 2020. Specifically, Zarif accuses Soleimani of undermining his attempts of facilitating the JCPOA in 2015 – a deal which was seen as an affront to the country's hardliners and the IRGC, of which Al-Quds are a branch.

The IRGC, together with the regular army, constitute Iran's armed forces. Established by Ruhollah Khomeini on May 5, 1979, the is to protect the Islamic political system, prevent foreign interference, and control so-called “deviant movements.”

Increasingly, the IRGC has become responsible for fighting oppositional political groups. Most importantly, the IRGC has gained more and more influence in the country's active politics. In 's cabinet, 13 of the 21 ministerial posts were occupied by former commanders of the IRGC.

Who is behind the leak?

The question remains. Initially, even Zarif himself could not be ruled out, as some commentators suggested that the leak was a bid to position himself for candidacy in the June presidential elections. However, given the , it seems unlikely that Zarif would jeopardise a potential candidacy by alienating the , which approves all candidates.

On 2 May, Zarif apologised for his remarks criticising the political system, in particular, the IRGC. Regarding his remarks on Soleimani, he wrote that if he had known his statements would leak, he would never have said them.

President Rouhani has distanced himself from the interview. However, Rouhani has implied that the hardliners are behind the leaked material. He suggests the leak intended to cause a stir in  and sabotage the renewed nuclear negotiations, thus boosting hardliners' chances in the presidential election.

It seems unlikely that Zarif would jeopardise a potential candidacy by alienating the Guardian Council, which approves all candidates

The tapes play into a familiar pattern. Against the will of Rouhani, in December 2020, Parliament ordered the authorities to from around 4% to 20%.

However, the increasing enrichment has not achieved its sought-after result: an end of any negotiations with the West. This may explain why the tapes have become public now, despite being recorded in February.

An election poised to change Iran's direction

Indeed, the hardliners have been positioning themselves for months. Rouhani is leaving office this summer. According to the constitution, he is not permitted to stand in the 18 June election, which is considered to be a critical moment for the Islamic Republic.

In essence, the hardliners have a chance to win the presidency and fundamentally change the direction of the country.

Rouhani has not fulfilled his promises of creating a more prosperous Iran, and the 2019 parliamentary elections were an early indicator of discontent. The reformists lost seats, and , a hardliner and former member of the IRGC who has run for president three times, became the new Speaker of Parliament.

The 2019 elections foreshadow recent developments. With many in Iran disappointed with Rouhani's track record, hardliners offer a diametrically opposed ballot option. Never in the history of Iran have so many ex-IRGC officers been in the running for office.

The candidates from the ranks of the IRGC are just as critical of the reformist idea of as they are of the JCPOA and its restrictions.

Moreover, the IRGC categorically rejects the regarding Iran's role in the region and its programme to build ballistic missiles – two operations under the IRGC's purview.

Should Rouhani and Zarif achieve an in the ongoing , the race for the presidency could turn. This is precisely why the timing of the leak is not a coincidence.

With another month until election day, the Rouhani government and Biden administration should hope for the best but prepare for the worst, as the tapes are unlikely to be the final attempt to sabotage progress between Iran and the West. 

Thomas O. Falk is a London-based freelance journalist who focuses on US affairs and the Middle East. He has written for Al Jazeera, Inside Arabia, il Giornale and other outlets.

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