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Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has been fondly described by Donald Trump as “my favourite dictator” and the two leaders formed a close bond during Trump’s administration.

But bombshell allegations the relationship was built upon a $10 million bribe from an Egypt-linked group days before Trump took office in January 2017 suggest Sisi was seeking more than friendship.

Whether the allegations are true or not, Cairo’s attempts to influence US politics with bribes are understandable given the benefits it reaps from the relationship.

For decades, Egypt has been regarded as a stable ally of the US in a region fraught with instability and has been rewarded with billions of dollars worth of military aid, elevated regional soft power, and a stronger bargaining position in the ongoing Israel-Hamas peace talks.

The revelations raise questions about what a second Trump presidency will mean both for Egypt and its leader. With the ongoing economic crisis, conflicts in neighbouring countries Israel and Sudan, as well as Houthi attacks on the Suez Canal, Egypt needs friends in high places more than ever. And it works both ways.

“Egypt is a pivotal state for the United States in order to assure clear stabilisation in the region,” Giuseppe Dentice, head of the MENA desk at the Italy-based Centre for International Studies, told °®Âţµş.

According to a from The Washington Post, $10 million was withdrawn from a Cairo bank five days before Trump’s inauguration in January 2017 and delivered to the incoming president in cash – violating US law, which forbids candidates from accepting foreign donations.Ěý

A secret case investigating whether Sisi gave Trump $10 million was opened in 2017 and closed in 2020 after Trump’s attorney general William Bar quashed the probe.

“Egypt is one of the countries that receives the largest amount of foreign aid from the US,” Dr Matthew Sparks, US-based anthropologist and historian of the Sinai, explains. “Also, from 2016 to 2017, Egypt was much more unstable than today and Sisi was trying to make a new friend in a big position of power who could help keep the security situation under control.”

Egypt’s efforts to influence US politics go beyond Trump. Last month, Democrat senator Bob Mendelez was found guilty of taking bribes from the Egyptian government in exchange for helping to secure millions of dollars in US aid for Egypt and passing along intel.

Today, President Sisi finds himself in a similar situation to 2016 as the outcome of the upcoming US elections could materially impact the future of his nation.

“If Trump wins, it stands to benefit Egypt tremendously,” Sparks said. “Sisi will have shown himself to be a strong ally of Trump and Trump is not going to forget that.”

Sisi and Trump's relationship of mutual benefit

The two met at the sidelines of the UN general assembly in September 2016, when Trump called Sisi a “fantastic guy”. The relationship blossomed as Trump sought an alliance with a strongman he believed would stand up against terrorism. Trump invited Sisi to the White House in April 2017, an invitation the Obama administration never extended.

In 2016, it was an uncertain time for US domestic politics and international allegiances.

“You had the uncertainty of the American election,” said Sparks. “Trump's opponent Hillary Clinton, alongside her president while she was Secretary of State, Barack Obama, had been very openly for Mohamed Morsi and his party,” he added.

“So essentially you had a situation where the enemy of the enemy is my friend.”

In exchange for friendship, Trump’s administration bestowed Sisi with financial rewards as well as political gain. In one example, Trump’s secretary of State Michael Pompeo the congressional restrictions on 2018 funding and authorised the release of $300 million that had been conditioned on Egypt improving human rights conditions.Ěý

From Trump’s viewpoint, Sisi is an important regional ally, Sparks explains. “Trump is a man who thinks about trade. He understands the global trade flows and he knows that the Suez Canal has to be in the hands of an ally,” he added.

“Egypt is really not in a good situation at all at the moment with the war, the economy and the refugee crisis,” Sparks noted. “And if you've got a close friend who's the president of the United States that's going to help.”

The US sends Egypt $1.3 billion of military aid annually, making it the second-biggest recipient after Israel, as well as publicly defending Egypt on both the Rafah Crossing incursion and Red Sea Crisis, and selling billions of dollars worth of arms to Egypt.

“From Sisi’s perspective, the US alliance is key to running the country,” Sparks said. “The weapons and aid are essential to make the military and the country function.”

A Faustian pact

Similar to events in 2016, Sisi has a lot at stake in the upcoming election outcome. President Trump may once again reward his “favourite dictator” as he’s expected to devote attention to the Middle East in an attempt to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“I think he’s going to increase trade and economic relations,” Sparks said. “Trump is an investor and he may try to help Egypt with some of these massive investment projects currently going on.”

Vice-President Harris’ stance on foreign affairs and attitude towards authoritarian leaders is unclear, but Egypt could stand to lose a key ally and perhaps even more importantly today vital funding if Harris follows in Obama’s footsteps and takes a harsher stance towards regimes with chequered human rights records.

Yet despite their differences, President Sisi has shown he can effectively work with the Biden administration. Incumbent US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has visited Cairo on multiple occasions and on military aid promises, even though Blinken has Egypt to improve human rights progress.

“For Egypt, it is not important who the President of the United States is, but rather how each President of the United States tries to cooperate with Egypt on key elements of Egyptian politics, security and intelligence,” Dentice said. “These are the three elements that are very important in Egypt’s agenda.”

“The pragmatism of the Democrats could be better for Egypt’s needs than Trump and the Republican Party’s choices. For Democrats in general, the stabilisation of Egypt is fundamental, as we have seen in the Biden administration.”

Lara Gibson is a Cairo-based journalist closely following Egypt's economic and political developments.

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